The Spanish economy is holding its ground despite the war in the Middle East, or at least that's what the Bank of Spain projects. The supervisory body estimates that it will grow by 2.3% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, as published this Thursday, thus maintaining the growth forecast from last March unchanged. At that time, however, only a few weeks had passed since the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran had passed since the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran. However, despite seeming to save face in a context of strong global uncertainty, there are some "structural problems" that could shake economic activity in the State, among which, once again, access to housing stands out: "It can lead to significant macroeconomic and social effects," according to the Annual Report of 2025Annual Report of 2025 published this Thursday by the supervisory body.

The winner of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics, Philippe Aghion, has championed from Barcelona the effects of artificial intelligence on the economy. According to the expert's calculations, AI can add more than one percentage point to total productivity over a decade. The new contributions, however, are conditional on countries' ability to "build the right institutions" to regulate and promote it. "AI has great potential, but we need to adapt our policies to take advantage of it," he argued at a conference held this Tuesday at the headquarters of the Cercle d'Economia.

High growth rates of GDP and employment do not necessarily imply an improvement in people's prosperity. GDP per capita is a more appropriate indicator to assess the translation of growth into well-being – and even better, disposable income per capita. In turn, the main determinant of GDP per capita is productivity; that is, GDP generated per job or per hour worked. From this point of view, it is concerning that since the beginning of the previous decade, the productivity of the Catalan economy has tended to perform worse than the European one – with the exception of the incipient recovery in recent years. To what extent can this loss of productivity in relation to Europe be explained by the bias of the Catalan economy towards certain activities considered of low added value?

The growth of the Catalan and Spanish economy is undeniable. And future estimates, despite a slowdown, confirm that we will continue to be the champions of GDP growth. The President of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sánchez, did not fail to mention this during his speech at the annual meeting of the Cercle d'Economia in Barcelona, where he surprised the audience by announcing the steps to present the State budgets for 2027, which sound more like an electoral program than a real possibility.

In recent months, various reports and analyses have argued that a part of the current economic problems stem from an excessive specialization in low value-added activities. However, this approach runs the risk of simplifying a much more complex reality and presenting the economy as a confrontation between "good" and "bad" sectors. The fundamental issue is not which activities are developed, but how they are developed. International evidence shows that countries with higher wages are not necessarily those that have eliminated labor-intensive sectors, but rather those that have managed to increase the productivity of their entire economy. It is not about reducing activity, but about improving what is being done.

Prepared by a group of renowned economists, the Fènix Report is undoubtedly a relevant contribution to public discourse. Those who shape—and we shape—opinion in the media often attribute a large part of the problems we have as a society to something called the economic model, and not infrequently we write or say that a change, or changes, in this model is necessary. Well, the Fènix Report presents a sound, rigorous, and straightforward exploration and diagnosis of the economic model in force in Catalonia during the first quarter of the 21st century. From 2000 to 2025, Catalonia has only lost sheets (GDP points) with each wash, meaning: in comparisons with regions in Europe, or America, with which Catalonia traditionally used to compete or be reflected, and which allowed for complacent or triumphalist expressions of the type “Catalonia, the Bavaria of Southern Europe” or “Catalonia, the European Massachusetts”. This kind of effusion has long since gone out of style, and in its place a chorus of resentful and phantom voices is heard preaching nationalist retreats or, directly, hate speech directed very especially against immigration. Indeed, the migratory flows that have arrived in Catalonia have only grown during these twenty-five years, and have led to a profound demographic transformation, summarized in the transition from Catalonia of six million to that of eight million inhabitants (the Fènix Report incorporates the forecast of ten million by 2050). It is no coincidence that, from the year 2000 until now, Catalonia, and especially Barcelona, has made its economy increasingly dependent on mass tourism and real estate speculation, two phenomena closely linked, often in the form of cause and effect. In these aspects, it can be said that Catalonia —especially Barcelona— has become Balearized, given that the Balearic Islands are, unfortunately, a benchmark in this economic model focused on low-productivity activities, unskilled labor, and low wages, on which the Fènix focuses. And it is true, as its authors indicate, that workers with excessively low wages do not contribute enough to cover the services they will use throughout their lives, thus “contributing” to the deterioration of the economic fabric and the impoverishment of the country as a whole.

After decades dedicated to politics, the former Prime Minister of Luxembourg and then President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, delivered the best sentence of his life: "We all know what needs to be done, what we don't know is how to get re-elected once we have done it" (2007). The difference between knowing and doing, or between diagnosis and solution. And here we are, in the permanent struggle between what knowledge tells us, what the quality of public debate is capable of agreeing upon, and what is politically executed. We are talking about democratic politics, of course, which has many more limitations than autocratic regimes, which in the same way that they approve a five-year plan, make a minister disappear or make a dissident fly out of a window.

The Nobel laureate in economics Paul Krugman very well described the importance of an economic variable that is fundamental, although it may be unknown to most citizens. "Productivity is not everything, but in the long run, it is almost everything," he said. The fact is that growing is one thing, and progressing or prospering is another. Or, more simply, volume or quantity is one thing – gross domestic product (GDP) is increasing and in Catalonia it has already exceeded 300 billion euros – and quality is another, that is, how this pie is distributed among all those who live in a given economy.

A harsh report on the state of the Catalan economy, prepared by several economists, criticizes the country's productive structure because several business sectors end up being, de facto, "highly subsidized" by the rest of the economic fabric. This current model has represented an "impoverishment" of Catalan society and a continuous loss of productivity of the business fabric compared to Europe in the last 25 years. "The country is bleeding out," summarized the report's coordinator, executive and engineer Xavier Roig.

Economic prospects are still favorable. Despite the setback of the last EPA, with a sudden and high increase in unemployment that returns us to the leadership in this scourge in the developed world, Catalonia continues to grow, and above its surroundings. But tailwinds are no guarantee of progress. The risk is having consumed very good years with too much complacency and not having done our homework well enough. Perhaps because some debates are too uncomfortable, but sooner or later we will have to face them: working or not working, rights or duties, higher wages or productivity, technology or employment.

When he was the European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell described Europe as "a garden," in contrast to the "jungle" that is much of the rest of the world. On paper, this supposed garden is based on the security and capacity for citizens to progress economically and materially, guaranteed by a strong state that redistributes wealth through taxes, but above all through basic services. In other words, the defining element of European progress is the so-called welfare state. Despite Borrell's positive words, the viability of this welfare state is being questioned across the continent, doubts that also affect Catalonia and Spain. What future, then, does the welfare state system, on which the Catalan economy is based and on which millions of people depend to a greater or lesser extent, have?

The current situation is positive. Growth prospects remain good for this newly begun 2026. In general, Spanish companies are more optimistic than their European counterparts, although several variables cloud their potential, such as high tax rates and absenteeism—especially sick leave—according to employers' organizations. These are essential elements, they affirm, for improving competitiveness and productivity. A key positive point is exports—once the initial shock of tariffs in the trade policies implemented by Donald Trump in the US has subsided—despite geopolitical instability, according to the survey results. Business Outlook 2026 which are prepared annually by European chambers of commerce, including the Spanish chamber, chaired by José Luis Bonet.

2026 opens up for the Catalan economy and the Spanish economy as a whole in a context of transition and uncertainty, but also of opportunity. After several years of sustained growth, exceeding that of the Eurozone, we are entering a phase in which the tailwinds are moderating, and the main challenge is no longer growth itself, but how we grow and on what foundations. Forecasts indicate that Catalonia will continue to grow above the European average and, foreseeably, also above the Spanish average, albeit at a more moderate pace. This positive trend confirms the strength of our economic fabric, but at the same time highlights an uncomfortable reality: growth alone does not guarantee progress. If it does not translate into structural improvements, productivity, and social cohesion, it risks becoming exhausted. The structural challenges of a new cycle

In this new scenario, the priority must be clear: to consolidate a more robust, more competitive, and more inclusive economic model. And this requires addressing, without delay, some structural challenges that we have been dragging along for far too long.

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Catalonia has a problem that has been identified for some time. And it's not that they do little or bad work: according to the latest regional accounting data from the INE, Productivity growth per hour worked in Catalonia is above the Spanish average and, especially, above that of the Community of Madrid. This trend is largely due to the greater weight of industry, which contributes more added value, investment, and exports than in Madrid, where services are even more prevalent. In any case, the Spanish capital leads in average salaries, due to the high concentration of headquarters of large companies and, therefore, of well-paid managers and executives. But the real problem is wealth redistribution: Madrid leads the way—the capital city effect plays a significant role—with a larger share of the wealth per capita. The second and third positions are occupied by two regions with their own financing models: the Basque Country, which also has a large industrial sector, and Navarre. The solution? There isn't a single one, but some could include reviving initiatives such as the pact to increase the weight of industry, given the advantages this activity provides to the economy as a whole; Promoting the creation of larger or more technologically advanced companies (more value and higher wages) and a regional funding model that, while perhaps not unique, is certainly fairer. Little...

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The productivity growth of Catalan workers was significantly higher than that of employees in the Community of Madrid, and also much higher than the Spanish average, according to 2024 regional accounting data published this Tuesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE). According to this agency, Catalan productivity improved by 1.82%, while that of Madrid workers increased by only 0.04%. The Spanish average stood at 1.20%. In contrast, workers in Madrid were much better paid than their Catalan counterparts. The average salary in Madrid was €46,850 per year, while in Catalonia it was €43,411. The INE includes all types of compensation received by the worker in the average salary, whether in cash or in kind, overtime pay, and social security contributions. In both cases, the average salary was significantly higher than the national average of €40,514 per year. In the ranking of highest-paid workers, Madrid takes first place (€46,850), followed by the Basque Country (€45,321), Catalonia (€43,411), and Navarre in fourth place (€43,109). At the other end of the spectrum, the lowest average salary is in Extremadura (€33,695), behind Murcia (€34,573) and Andalusia (€35,505). Another aspect covered by the INE (National Institute of Statistics) is the growth in investment, which, according to the latest data from Idescat (Statistical Institute of Catalonia) It has become the main engine of the Catalan economyThus, according to the INE (National Institute of Statistics), investment in Catalonia in 2024 grew by 7.1%, the same percentage as in the region presided over by Isabel Díaz Ayuso, and two points above the national average (5.1%). In fact, the regions where investment grew the most last year were Ceuta and Melilla (9.7%), Cantabria (8.8%), and Catalonia and Madrid (7.1%). Investment fell in only one region, La Rioja, with a decrease of 1.7%.

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Round numbers, like birthdays, captivate us with their certainty. The 50th anniversary of the dictator's death—Franco—holds a mirror up to us, reflecting both successes and failures. The mirror that generates the most unanimity among economists is GDP per capita, seen as a measure of prosperity. We have reliable data to compare the GDP per capita of each of Spain's current autonomous communities in 1975 (they didn't yet exist, but their boundaries were statistically well-defined) and today (2024). In 1975, Catalonia's GDP per capita was 28% above the national average. This was the lowest figure achieved in the entire previous century. The decline was particularly rapid between 1920 and 1930 and between 1960 and 1975. In both cases, in addition to the similar political regime—military dictatorship—there was a very strong wave of immigration. In fact, these were the two largest waves of immigration of the entire 20th century.

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There's no way to overcome this challenge. Europe invests a third less in innovation than the US, and this gap persists, leading to a loss of competitiveness and productivity. This is the warning from Europe G, the think tank led by former Catalan Minister of Economy Antoni Castells, in its latest report. paperData from the OECD and Eurostat clearly reflect this: European spending on research and innovation (R&D) amounts to 2.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) compared to 3.5% in the United States. This 35% difference "explains the lag in productivity, business profitability, and technological leadership," the authors assert.

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At the entrance to the CCOO headquarters in Madrid, there is a plaque marking the birthplace of the union's current general secretary, Unai Sordo (Barakaldo, Basque Country). The immense plaque CCOO, of the Basque Agustín Ibarrola Goicoechea (1930-2023), presides the hall contrasting with the gray concrete. "Ibarrola was a much-loved figure," Sordo recalls. The union leader receives ARA shortly after Junts announced its veto of some of the Spanish government's laws.

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Ninety-one percent of Catalan economists, who held their annual conference in Barcelona, ​​believe that Catalonia must change its production model to guarantee its competitiveness, according to data from the College of Economists announced by the organization's dean, Carles Puig de Travy. The challenges are overcoming low productivity, infrastructure deficiencies, excessive bureaucracy, and a lack of structural reforms. At the same conference, the Catalan Minister of Economy, Alícia Romero, on the same day that Catalonia's growth figures for the third quarter were released (0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 2.4% year-on-year), stated: "Competitiveness must generate wealth that is shared socially and territorially, otherwise..."

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The Barcelona Chamber of Commerce revised upwards its growth forecasts for the Catalan economy this year on Tuesday. The business institution believes that economic activity will rise in 2025 thanks to an improvement in household consumption and business investment, something that is also being reflected in the rise in productivity, one of the historically unresolved issues for the Catalan productive sector. Therefore, the president of the Chamber, Josep Santacreu, sent a message of "optimism" but with "caution."

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