Health authorities' forecasts have been met: the seventh wave's number of cases began to fall after reaching its peak between June 27 and July 3 with 40,500 weekly cases. According to data from the Information System for the Surveillance of Infections in Catalonia (Sivic), 34,447 positive cases were diagnosed in the last seven days, about 6,000 fewer than the previous week, and the rate of new hospital admissions is stabilising at around 2,000 admissions. Occupancy in intensive care units (ICU) is not growing either, with about fifty seriously ill patients, nor is mortality, with about sixty deaths per week.

Infections have peaked and after weeks of "slowing down", Catalonia is finally beginning to get over the most uncertain wave of covid. In the week of January 17 to 23 more than 250,000 positive cases were detected due to the rapid transmission of the virus, which mainly affected younger age groups. This is reflected in the official records thanks to the diagnostic effort in the educational environment and self-diagnosed cases in pharmacies. "The data is very clear: we have got passed the peak and this week there is already a fairly rapid drop in cases," summarises Clara Prats, a researcher in the Biocom-SC group at the UPC.

Families interested in making an appointment to vaccinate children aged between 5 and 11 can start doing so at vacunacovid.catsalut.gencat.cat as of this Monday at 2 p.m., after the first 234,000 paediatric Pfizer doses landed in Catalonia. In addition to the first 1.3 million doses that have arrived in Spain, the Spanish government has announced that 1.2 million more will arrive between December and January. In total, 2.5 million vaccines.

The pandemic's growth in Catalonia is already undeniable: the curve of infections began to grow around All Saints, at the beginning of the month, and twenty days later it has reached 7,758 new cases a week, i.e. more than a thousand cases a day on average. And this increase in new infections is already affecting the health system. In primary care there have been 9,000 consultations related to covid in the last 24 hours, about 41,000 in the last week. In Catalan hospitals the number of hospitalisations due to the virus has also grown by 60% in a week and this Wednesday there are already 565 admitted to hospital (48 more than yesterday), 127 of them in intensive care units (ICU), eight more than on Tuesday. The vast majority are over 50. However, while admitting concern about "the significant increase" in activity related to coronavirus since the weekend across the country, Catalan Secretary of Public Health Carmen Cabezas claimed that the impact of this new onslaught is much lower than that of previous waves. "At the moment it has a similar behaviour to the fifth wave, which reinforces the idea that vaccination is very useful to prevent the severity of the disease and deaths," she said.

The incidence of the virus continues to decline in Catalonia, but the speed at which it does is decreasing as a consequence of the easing of restrictions. "The fall has slowed down a lot", says Biocomsc group researcher Enric Àlvarez, who adds: "[Case numbers] were falling very fast and we had a large margin, but now this margin has become narrower. That is, socialisation has increased a lot". That is why there are experts like virologist of the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) Margarita del Val who warn of the dangers of overconfidence: "Until we have all risk groups vaccinated we cannot relax, because the virus will take advantage of any truce that you give it to attack again"

The recovery of some social activities such as dinners and nightlife have slowed down the decline in the curve of infections, although this change has not altered the trend of the epidemic in Catalonia, which continues to recede day after day. The last week 4,700 coronavirus cases were diagnosed, fewer than 700 cases per day on average, and as the vaccination of those over 50 years old advances hospitals are freeing up. Hospitalisations on the ward are down 18% compared to last week and also the intensive care units (ICU) - where there are still 344 seriously ill patients - have 14% fewer patients.

Against all prognosis, Catalonia has controlled the growth and virulence of the fourth wave and has avoided an explosion of new infections and hospitalisations that would overwhelm the health system. The rise has been contained with relative ease thanks, in part, to the restrictions, the vaccination campaign and the good weather which is making it possible to do more outdoor activities and avoid risky interactions. However, the spread of the virus remains constant and at high levels: in the last week 1,500 infections have been diagnosed per day. In addition, the rate of infection or Rt stands at 0.96 and shows that although the epidemic is not accelerating it is not slowing down either.

Epidemiological indicators have fluctuated for ten days due to the lack of covid diagnoses during the Easter holidays. Key data such as the rate of infection (Rt), which measures the speed with which the virus spreads, first fell sharply to implausible values (0.88) and now, while trying to achieve statistical stability again, have skyrocketed falsely (1.39). But the reality is that the Easter holidays have not accelerated the curve of contagions. Or rather, the behaviour of the population during Easter has not caused an uncontrollable avalanche of new infections.