The Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, has already chosen a candidate for the presidency of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF): Inés Olóndriz, currently the Secretary General for Regional and Local Financing, a position within the Ministry of Finance, as sources close to the process have explained and confirmed to ARA. This is the candidate the Ministry of Finance has put forward to the parliamentary groups in Congress, who will have to ratify the nomination in the Finance Committee, to replace the current president of the agency, Cristina Herrero, whose term expires this Tuesday, March 3. Sources within the Ministry headed by María Jesús Montero emphasize that Olóndriz has earned the respect of both the public and private sectors. The Treasury highlights her technical background and over 30 years of work experience, which has given her a deep understanding of the workings of the three levels of public administration in Spain: national, regional, and local. It's important to note that, among other things, the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) is dedicated to monitoring and controlling public spending across all levels of government and, consequently, fiscal sustainability. In fact, Olóndriz arrives at a time when her predecessor has not hesitated to criticize the lack of a national budget.

The YouTubers And some social media profiles have found a new goldmine for generating discussion, tension, and therefore, more views for their content. The claim that young people (millennials and zetas) will have a much darker future than the present enjoyed by their parents and grandparents (boomersThis has reopened the debate surrounding the sustainability of pensions and a scenario of intergenerational conflict that is being particularly capitalized on by the far-right. That the system is under strain is something experts have been saying for years, but beyond the clashes between age groups, the question for the coming decades is different: how to guarantee pensions in the future?

"This may be my last press conference." These were the words with which Cristina Herrero, president of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), announced on Tuesday that her term is coming to an end. Herrero was elected six years ago to head the Spanish agency dedicated to monitoring and controlling public spending and, consequently, fiscal sustainability—that is, ensuring the public accounts are sound. However, her work ends on March 3. By law, she cannot return to the position, and there is no interim appointment at AIReF. Herrero's dismissal is automatic, and therefore the Spanish government must find and propose a candidate before that date. If this does not happen, the director of the budget analysis division assumes supervisory functions, but their leadership capacity is limited.

Sick leave due to temporary incapacity (TI), that is, when a worker suffers an illness or accident that temporarily prevents them from performing their job, has skyrocketed since 2017. This has been confirmed by the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) with the publication of a study on the evolution of social security coverage and its findings on this growth. Broadly speaking, from 2017 to 2024, sick leave due to temporary incapacity has increased by 60% in terms of incidence, while its duration has grown by an average of 15%, according to AIReF calculations. Specifically, the average duration of sick leave has increased from 40 days to 46, although in some conditions the increase has been even more pronounced: for mental health reasons, for example, it has risen from 67 days to 99. All of this has resulted in a tripling of spending: pensions. In 2024, these costs amounted to €16.5 billion for public coffers (between the 4th and 15th day of sick leave, the cost is shared with the company, and only from the 16th day onwards is it covered by Social Security), while in 2017 they amounted to €5.473 billion.

More than ten years ago, in the midst of the Great Recession, the two main parties in Spain, the PSOE and the PP, agreed to a constitutional reform to accept and comply with the debt reduction demanded by Brussels from the most indebted countries. This led to the creation of a permanent constraint on public spending enshrined in the Spanish Constitution under the name of "budgetary stability," paving the way for Mariano Rajoy's (PP) government to later pass the so-called Budgetary Stability Law in 2012. All of this required public administrations to be very restrictive with spending.

The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has once again criticized the Spanish government for still not having presented a draft national budget for 2026. "Not presenting a budget prevents debate, and the lack of debate means that oversight [of the Spanish government] is impossible," criticized AIReF President Herrero, a close associate of Herrero. Herrero said that it is "crucial" to be able to carry out this oversight exercise to see if the executive's actions align with its promises, especially in fiscal terms. Despite the difficulties in approving new public accounts (the 2023 budget remains extended), especially after the fragile relationship with JuntsPedro Sánchez is determined to present a budget proposal. Before that, however, the government must establish a spending ceiling and a stability path with new deficit and debt targets. This step is expected to be taken in the coming days. All of this will also have to be presented to the autonomous communities at a Fiscal and Financial Policy Council (CPFF). In this regard, the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has once again raised the issue of applying different deficit targets depending on the region.

How much does the Spanish government spend on defense? And what is the fiscal impact of this spending? These are questions the Fiscal Authority asked itself when preparing the report on budget execution for 2025, but it has been unable to answer. The agency chaired by Cristina Herrero criticizes the agency for being blind in its calculation of public spending in this area and its impact on the deficit and debt, although the Spanish government intends to reach 2% of GDP on defense by 2025 to comply with NATO.

The Spanish government promoted the minimum living income (MLI) during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in an attempt to "eradicate poverty and promote labor market participation and social inclusion for people in vulnerable situations." Five years later, the Independent Accountability Authority (AIREF) believes that this flagship measure of Pedro Sánchez's administration has failed to fulfill at least one of its objectives. The agency found that the benefit reduces the probability of working by three percentage points (12% less) and decreases the number of days worked to 0.6 per month (11% less). These are the main conclusions of the annual analysis of this benefit published by the AIREF, which, for the first time, focuses on its impact on employment.

The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIREF, the state agency that oversees public accounts) has lowered its growth forecasts for the Spanish economy for this year and next due to international uncertainty. In response, it has stated that the State will have to take measures starting in 2027 to comply with the fiscal commitments required by European regulations.

Amid the trade storm, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) brings good news to Spain. The organization has revised upwards the growth of the Spanish economy for 2025 and places the gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) at 2.5%, which is two-tenths of a percentage point higher than the last estimate. Thus, the IMF aligns itself with the Spanish government regarding its growth forecast for this year, but also with the Fiscal Authority (AIREF), which this Thursday announced that it maintains its growth estimate for Spain. The Bank of Spain was the only organization that confirmed that it will revise GDP growth downwards due to the trade war. The institution chaired by José Luis Escrivá forecast an economic growth of 2.7% in 2025, a more optimistic estimate than that of the Spanish government.

The war in Ukraine has blown up the economic forecasts of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (Airef) for 2022. Its president, Cristina Herrero, said the scenarios through which the Airef had calculated that the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan could have an impact of 2.5 points on the GDP, in parallel to the estimates that the Spanish government had made, "are not fulfilled". "We counted on a favourable international context, low interest rates and lower inflation. These are conditions that are not present now," said Herrero on Tuesday. And she reiterated that "the positive impact of the plan will be revised downwards".

The new wave of covid-19 has put Catalonia on alert and has left Spain in red on the European map of covid contagion may slow down the arrival of tourists and delay economic recovery. The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (Airef) warns of the dangers to the economy of increased infections in the middle of the tourist season, which in the case of Catalonia come accompanied by new restrictions. "The incidence of coronavirus in Spain is higher than that of the surrounding countries, a fact that harms the expectations of future developments in tourist flows," says Airef in the report published on Thursday.

The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (Airef) joins the agencies that have qualified their optimism about the growth of the Spanish economy for this year. The Airef has cut its forecast from the 8.2% it had initially estimated to 6.6% because of the pandemic - which is dragging on and threatens a fourth wave - and because of the delay in implementing the Recovery Plan. The first factor has caused the Spanish GDP to grow less than expected in the last six months, while the impact of European funds will hardly be felt before 2022, as highlighted by Airef in its report published Thursday.