The Catalan economy maintained growth figures above the European average in the first quarter of this year, mainly thanks to the consumption of foreign tourists and the strength of the services sector. The outbreak of the war in Iran, therefore, did not have a significant initial impact on the country's economic activity.

The cost of living in Catalonia moderated last May despite the upward pressures of fuel costs on family economies caused by the energy crisis derived from the war in Iran. Nevertheless, the measures approved by the Spanish government to cut taxes on electricity and natural gas curbed price increases.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to make a move to try to curb the rise in inflation caused by the war in the Middle East initiated by the United States and Israel. The rate of price increase in the eurozone has been moving away from Frankfurt's goal of keeping it at 2% annually for months, and finally, the financial institution has decided to act to prevent this percentage from growing further and has raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, to 2.25%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has been holding its fire for months. It did not want to make a misstep and prematurely use the main tool at its disposal to curb inflation caused by the war in Iran initiated by the United States and Israel. However, the price increase remains upward and is moving further and further away from the goal of keeping it at an annual rate of 2%. For this reason, experts and markets anticipate that the body led by Christine Lagarde has already loaded its ammunition and will raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, to 2.25%, at this Thursday's meeting.

If in a country the central bank governor has to publicly deny having carried out a covert coup d'état to overthrow a democratic government, it is logical to think that the country may have a problem with its central bank – and with the governor in question. This is exactly what Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, had to do in November 2022, following the resignation of Liz Truss as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, only 44 days after taking office. As if Truss's bad luck were not enough, during her brief term, Queen Elizabeth II died.

The Spanish economy will maintain a "robust" growth rate despite the conflict in the Middle East and international uncertainty, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, the institution that groups the world's advanced economies). The economic body has revised its growth forecast for Spain in 2026 upwards by one tenth, to 2.2%, in line with the estimate maintained by the Spanish government.

The Russian economy has faced pessimistic forecasts since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when a large part of Western countries gradually imposed all kinds of industrial and financial sanctions on it. Despite this, Moscow's narrative had been that the country's economy was holding up well to the economic shock, partly thanks to public investment and industrial activity resulting from the war, which offset the impact of the sanctions.

A harsh report on the state of the Catalan economy, prepared by several economists, criticizes the country's productive structure because several business sectors end up being, de facto, "highly subsidized" by the rest of the economic fabric. This current model has represented an "impoverishment" of Catalan society and a continuous loss of productivity of the business fabric compared to Europe in the last 25 years. "The country is bleeding out," summarized the report's coordinator, executive and engineer Xavier Roig.

The Catalan economy will slow its growth this year, accompanied by an increase in prices, if the armed conflict in the Middle East is maintained or worsens, according to the economic forecasts of the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce.

The positive momentum of the Catalan economy will offset the geopolitical uncertainty caused by the war in Iran and the trade tensions over tariffs from the President of the United States, Donald Trump. According to the latest macroeconomic scenario for Catalonia, published this Monday by the Department of Economy and Finance of the Generalitat, Catalan gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) will grow by 2.3% in 2026, in line with the forecasts for the Spanish economy and above the main economies of the euro area. Similarly, the Govern expects around 100,000 jobs to be created over the next two years and for the employment rate to fall to 8.3% in 2027.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) calls on governments to implement "temporary" policies to protect their economies from the energy shock caused by the war in Iran, with special emphasis on protecting the most "vulnerable" segments of the population, according to the April report of Fiscal Monitor, which the economic body publishes semi-annually. In the study, the IMF warns that some countries —such as many members of the European Union, China, or the United States, among others— have limited room to maneuver to carry out public policies to support the economy due to the high levels of public debt they have accumulated in recent years and low growth levels.

The impact of the war in the Middle East reduces global economic growth by two tenths for this year. While in the latest report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – published in January – an impulse of 3.3% was projected globally, after the outbreak of the conflict and the derivative of the energy crisis, an advance of 3.1% is now forecast. The entity's forecast is based on the assumption that the war will be resolved by mid-year, but the organization also presents two more adverse scenarios in which the impact of the conflict would be even greater: an intermediate one in which the economy would be reduced by eight tenths, to 2.5%, and the worst, in which global growth would fall to 2%. The new forecast also assumes three tenths less growth than registered during 2025, when it grew by 3.4%.

The Catalan economy ended 2025 with annual growth of 2.7%, one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the Spanish average, according to data published this Friday by Idescat, the Catalan government's statistical agency. Economic growth, clearly higher than the European average for another year, was driven primarily by business investment and household spending.

The GDP of the Catalan and Spanish economies has been growing at double the rates of the major European economies for several years, unemployment is falling, and inflation is trending toward the 2% target. Clearly, the macroeconomic figures paint a picture of a thriving economy. However, there is a growing perception among citizens and businesses that things aren't as good as they seem on the ground; rather, there's a general feeling that economic and social problems are piling up and that, despite the positive figures, things aren't quite working. More importantly, there's a sense that action is needed to prevent things from getting worse.

When he was the European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell described Europe as "a garden," in contrast to the "jungle" that is much of the rest of the world. On paper, this supposed garden is based on the security and capacity for citizens to progress economically and materially, guaranteed by a strong state that redistributes wealth through taxes, but above all through basic services. In other words, the defining element of European progress is the so-called welfare state. Despite Borrell's positive words, the viability of this welfare state is being questioned across the continent, doubts that also affect Catalonia and Spain. What future, then, does the welfare state system, on which the Catalan economy is based and on which millions of people depend to a greater or lesser extent, have?

The Barcelona Chamber of Commerce has described the current collapse of the railway system in Catalonia as a "tragedy" and has harshly criticized both the planning and execution so far of the commuter rail plan for 2020-2030. The Chamber denounced delays of hundreds of millions of euros in both the bidding and execution phases of infrastructure projects, according to business entity Alicia Casart. However, the Chamber's vice president, Miquel Martí, advocated giving "a vote of confidence" to the Ministry and the two state-owned companies that manage the affected infrastructure, Adif and Renfe. Specifically, Casart recalled that, prior to the system collapse two weeks ago, the commuter rail service had suffered from deficiencies for years, to the point that it had become "normal" for "users' patience to be routinely pushed beyond its limits," resulting in a "low quality" of the network. Therefore, she added, the commuter rail plan approved by the Spanish government was intended to "make up for lost time" and "bring the network up to date." This is complemented by the creation of a new mixed operating company with a stake held by the Catalan government (although the State retains a majority stake) and progress in transferring the infrastructure to the Catalan administration. However, the head of infrastructure at the Chamber of Commerce asserted that the plan is experiencing implementation delays, both in the bidding process for construction projects and in their execution. Thus, according to the initial plan, Adif, Renfe, and the Ministry of Transport are €800 million behind schedule. The execution of works and nearly €1 billion more in tenders—a delay that will ultimately penalize future projects as well: "Today's tenders are the news in Barcelona." Casart also criticized the plan's poor planning regarding the necessary actions. Specifically, the plan included a €1.018 billion program for replacing all types of assets on the network and at Renfe, which was progressing at a "fairly good" pace in 2024. However, that same year, the copper theft at Torre Baró triggered "a series of fires that crippled the Rodal network." This incident "set off all the alarms," ​​as it compounded other problems between 2023 and 2025, causing "a range of incidents that could not be explained solely by the volume of renovation work" being carried out on the railway infrastructure.

Donald Trump's threats against European allies, both territorial—a possible annexation of Greenland—and commercial—with more tariffs—have, for the moment, been put on hold after the US president backed down a week ago. Despite this de-escalation, European states anticipate renewed tensions with Washington and are studying measures to counter US attacks on the continent's countries, especially the member states of the European Union. One lever that EU governments and institutions can use is the strong dependence of the US government and US companies on their European partners. In the case of private companies, many US-based multinationals are deeply integrated into European economies through customers, suppliers, and investors who buy their shares and corporate debt. Similarly, a very large portion of US public debt held by foreigners is spread throughout Europe. If investors and governments in EU countries were to suddenly divest themselves of these assets, the global economy could suffer seriously, but especially the US economy.

The Spanish economy accelerated its growth rate during the last three months of 2025, nearly doubling the expected growth rate for the eurozone, according to preliminary data released Friday by the National Statistics Institute (INE). This placed Spain among the leading growth countries in the European Union for another quarter. Meanwhile, the cost of living for families moderated in January after three consecutive months of price increases.

The first year of Donald Trump's return to the US presidency has seen a notable decline in the value of the dollar and an increase in US debt interest rates, but by no means can it be considered an unprecedented fall. Despite Washington's threats to close US allies—such as Denmark—the trade war, military interventions in Venezuela and Iran, and attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve (the Fed, the US central bank), the greenback has leveraged its dominant position as a safe-haven currency to maintain its strength.

According to a study, 96% of the cost of tariffs on foreign exports to the United States is paid by American businesses and consumers. think tank German Kiel Institute. This means that 192 billion of the additional 200 billion dollars (163.6 billion and 170.4 billion euros, respectively) that were to be collected in 2025 in trade tariffs at US customs have ended up being a transfer of money from American citizens to their federal government.