The impact of the war in the Middle East reduces global economic growth by two tenths for this year. While in the latest report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – published in January – an impulse of 3.3% was projected globally, after the outbreak of the conflict and the derivative of the energy crisis, an advance of 3.1% is now forecast. The entity's forecast is based on the assumption that the war will be resolved by mid-year, but the organization also presents two more adverse scenarios in which the impact of the conflict would be even greater: an intermediate one in which the economy would be reduced by eight tenths, to 2.5%, and the worst, in which global growth would fall to 2%. The new forecast also assumes three tenths less growth than registered during 2025, when it grew by 3.4%.

The Catalan economy ended 2025 with annual growth of 2.7%, one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the Spanish average, according to data published this Friday by Idescat, the Catalan government's statistical agency. Economic growth, clearly higher than the European average for another year, was driven primarily by business investment and household spending.

The GDP of the Catalan and Spanish economies has been growing at double the rates of the major European economies for several years, unemployment is falling, and inflation is trending toward the 2% target. Clearly, the macroeconomic figures paint a picture of a thriving economy. However, there is a growing perception among citizens and businesses that things aren't as good as they seem on the ground; rather, there's a general feeling that economic and social problems are piling up and that, despite the positive figures, things aren't quite working. More importantly, there's a sense that action is needed to prevent things from getting worse.

When he was the European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell described Europe as "a garden," in contrast to the "jungle" that is much of the rest of the world. On paper, this supposed garden is based on the security and capacity for citizens to progress economically and materially, guaranteed by a strong state that redistributes wealth through taxes, but above all through basic services. In other words, the defining element of European progress is the so-called welfare state. Despite Borrell's positive words, the viability of this welfare state is being questioned across the continent, doubts that also affect Catalonia and Spain. What future, then, does the welfare state system, on which the Catalan economy is based and on which millions of people depend to a greater or lesser extent, have?

The Barcelona Chamber of Commerce has described the current collapse of the railway system in Catalonia as a "tragedy" and has harshly criticized both the planning and execution so far of the commuter rail plan for 2020-2030. The Chamber denounced delays of hundreds of millions of euros in both the bidding and execution phases of infrastructure projects, according to business entity Alicia Casart. However, the Chamber's vice president, Miquel Martí, advocated giving "a vote of confidence" to the Ministry and the two state-owned companies that manage the affected infrastructure, Adif and Renfe. Specifically, Casart recalled that, prior to the system collapse two weeks ago, the commuter rail service had suffered from deficiencies for years, to the point that it had become "normal" for "users' patience to be routinely pushed beyond its limits," resulting in a "low quality" of the network. Therefore, she added, the commuter rail plan approved by the Spanish government was intended to "make up for lost time" and "bring the network up to date." This is complemented by the creation of a new mixed operating company with a stake held by the Catalan government (although the State retains a majority stake) and progress in transferring the infrastructure to the Catalan administration. However, the head of infrastructure at the Chamber of Commerce asserted that the plan is experiencing implementation delays, both in the bidding process for construction projects and in their execution. Thus, according to the initial plan, Adif, Renfe, and the Ministry of Transport are €800 million behind schedule. The execution of works and nearly €1 billion more in tenders—a delay that will ultimately penalize future projects as well: "Today's tenders are the news in Barcelona." Casart also criticized the plan's poor planning regarding the necessary actions. Specifically, the plan included a €1.018 billion program for replacing all types of assets on the network and at Renfe, which was progressing at a "fairly good" pace in 2024. However, that same year, the copper theft at Torre Baró triggered "a series of fires that crippled the Rodal network." This incident "set off all the alarms," ​​as it compounded other problems between 2023 and 2025, causing "a range of incidents that could not be explained solely by the volume of renovation work" being carried out on the railway infrastructure.

Donald Trump's threats against European allies, both territorial—a possible annexation of Greenland—and commercial—with more tariffs—have, for the moment, been put on hold after the US president backed down a week ago. Despite this de-escalation, European states anticipate renewed tensions with Washington and are studying measures to counter US attacks on the continent's countries, especially the member states of the European Union. One lever that EU governments and institutions can use is the strong dependence of the US government and US companies on their European partners. In the case of private companies, many US-based multinationals are deeply integrated into European economies through customers, suppliers, and investors who buy their shares and corporate debt. Similarly, a very large portion of US public debt held by foreigners is spread throughout Europe. If investors and governments in EU countries were to suddenly divest themselves of these assets, the global economy could suffer seriously, but especially the US economy.

The Spanish economy accelerated its growth rate during the last three months of 2025, nearly doubling the expected growth rate for the eurozone, according to preliminary data released Friday by the National Statistics Institute (INE). This placed Spain among the leading growth countries in the European Union for another quarter. Meanwhile, the cost of living for families moderated in January after three consecutive months of price increases.

The first year of Donald Trump's return to the US presidency has seen a notable decline in the value of the dollar and an increase in US debt interest rates, but by no means can it be considered an unprecedented fall. Despite Washington's threats to close US allies—such as Denmark—the trade war, military interventions in Venezuela and Iran, and attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve (the Fed, the US central bank), the greenback has leveraged its dominant position as a safe-haven currency to maintain its strength.

According to a study, 96% of the cost of tariffs on foreign exports to the United States is paid by American businesses and consumers. think tank German Kiel Institute. This means that 192 billion of the additional 200 billion dollars (163.6 billion and 170.4 billion euros, respectively) that were to be collected in 2025 in trade tariffs at US customs have ended up being a transfer of money from American citizens to their federal government.

The US economy continues to grow at a strong pace. US gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures economic activity) grew by 1.1% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous three months, according to the second estimate published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce. Meanwhile, Germany, Europe's largest economy, confirmed its return to growth, closing the last three months of last year with quarterly growth of 0.2%. In annualized figures, US GDP growth was 4.4%, six-tenths of a percentage point higher and the best figure in two years. This also represents a significant improvement over the 0.6% decline observed at the beginning of 2025, when US GDP fell for the first time since early 2022. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending and exports. Imports, which are subtracted from GDP calculations, decreased. Compared to the second quarter, household spending accelerated, and investment, exports, and government spending rebounded, while imports declined less in the third quarter than in the second.

The Davos conference, the annual gathering of dignitaries and business leaders held in this Swiss city, opens its latest edition this Monday with the presence of US President Donald Trump, who will deliver a speech on Wednesday. The strong political and economic instability worldwide – especially Trump's latest threats in Greenland– will be the backdrop for the meeting.

The German economy, the largest in Europe, left behind the recession in 2025 and recovered growth after two consecutive years of declining economic activity.

Catalonia was the second autonomous community with the lowest inflation in December and maintains, for the tenth consecutive month, a growth in the cost of living below the State average, where Madrid led the increase in the cost of living, according to data from the consumer price index (CPI, the indicator that measures the cost of living) published this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics.

The global economy is proving to be "more resilient than anticipated," despite persistent trade tensions and political uncertainty, according to the World Bank, which has revised its growth forecasts upward for this year and next to 2.6% and 2.7%, respectively, after substantially improving its forecast for the current year. The organization's new projections, while implying a slight slowdown this year compared to the 2.7% growth rate projected for 2025, also represent a two-tenths of a percentage point improvement compared to the June forecast for 2026. Furthermore, the forecast for 2020-2022...

The cost of living in Spain continued to rise this November, although at a more moderate pace than the previous monthAccording to preliminary data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI, the indicator that measures the cost of living for families) published this Friday by the National Statistics Institute (INE), food and, to a lesser extent, leisure and cultural services, have been the items that have become most expensive this month, which was also marked by cheaper electricity. Thus, the CPI has increased by 0.2% this month compared to October, a more moderate growth rate than the 0.7% recorded between September and last month. If prices are compared to November 2024, the increase has been 3%, one-tenth of a percentage point less than the year-on-year rate for October. Although lower, the annual increase of 3% is among the highest of the last two years and one percentage point above the 2% target set by the European Central Bank in the long term.

The Catalan economy continues to grow at a slower pace than the Spanish economy compared to a year ago, but at a faster pace compared to the previous quarter, according to preliminary data on gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) for the third quarter of the year published this Thursday by Idescat, the statistics agency of the Catalan government. Furthermore, Catalonia's economic activity figures far exceed the European Union average. Specifically, between July and September, Catalan GDP expanded by 2.4% compared to the same period in 2014, a figure four-tenths of a percentage point below the average for the rest of Spain. the one recorded by the state GDP. So, Catalonia has had two consecutive quarters followed by an annual growth rate below Spain's after several years of faster growth. However, in the third quarter of this year, the Catalan economy grew by 0.7% compared to the second quarter, one-tenth of a percentage point more than the rate recorded for Spain as a whole. For another quarter, however, Catalan GDP maintained a growth rate well above the European average. Specifically, the total of the 27 EU member states grew by 1.5%, nine-tenths of a percentage point less than Catalonia, while the 20 countries of the eurozone (those that share the common currency) grew by 1.3%. Quarterly, they registered increases of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, also below Catalonia's 0.7%.

The Spanish economy continued to grow during the summer at a rate significantly higher than that of most other European countries. Business investment and household consumption were the two main drivers of growth at a time when the external sector (exports and tourism) slowed its activity.

The Barcelona Chamber of Commerce revised upwards its growth forecasts for the Catalan economy this year on Tuesday. The business institution believes that economic activity will rise in 2025 thanks to an improvement in household consumption and business investment, something that is also being reflected in the rise in productivity, one of the historically unresolved issues for the Catalan productive sector. Therefore, the president of the Chamber, Josep Santacreu, sent a message of "optimism" but with "caution."

"Perhaps we're not doing entirely well," says economist Modesto Guinjoan (Riudoms, Baix Camp, 1954), regarding the state of the Catalan economy. On paper, the Spanish government, the Generalitat, unions, and employers' associations are happy: Spain is one of the leading countries in economic growth, and job creation in Europe and Catalonia has been growing faster than the national average for two years. The problem, according to Guinjoan, is not specific growth but rather the progress of the economy and, above all, of Catalan society.

Israeli-American Joel Mokyr, Frenchman Phillipe Aghion, and Canadian Peter Howitt are the three economists who have won the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has recognized the laureates' quest for "having explained economic growth caused by innovation," as explained economic growth.