The impact of the war in the Middle East reduces global economic growth by two tenths for this year. While in the latest report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – published in January – an impulse of 3.3% was projected globally, after the outbreak of the conflict and the derivative of the energy crisis, an advance of 3.1% is now forecast. The entity's forecast is based on the assumption that the war will be resolved by mid-year, but the organization also presents two more adverse scenarios in which the impact of the conflict would be even greater: an intermediate one in which the economy would be reduced by eight tenths, to 2.5%, and the worst, in which global growth would fall to 2%. The new forecast also assumes three tenths less growth than registered during 2025, when it grew by 3.4%.

Analysts at the Bank of Spain are heading into their Christmas break with a positive outlook regarding the country's economic growth. In line with other international organizations, and also with the Spanish government, the supervisory body forecasts that the Spanish economy will grow more than previously expected in 2025 (2.9%), as well as in 2026 and 2027. And they expect it to grow strongly. Thus, for next year, they estimate a rebound in gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator used to measure the size of an economy) of 2.2%, while in 2027 they project 1.9%, as detailed in the macroeconomic projections published this Tuesday. This represents an upward revision of four and two tenths of a percentage point, respectively, compared to the projections from last September.

Almost two months after publishing its macroeconomic forecasts for the next 3 years (2022, 2023 and 2024), the Bank of Spain (BdE) announced that it would revise them downwards. The duration of the war in Ukraine, inflationary pressure and, in particular, the increase in core inflation –the increase in prices without taking into account energy and food– as well as a growth of the economy in the first quarter which was more timid than expected, have led the supervisory body to forecast an increase in GDP of 4.1% in 2022 (0.4 percentage points less than in April, when it forecast growth of 4.5%). Thus, the BdE's projection is in line with that of the OECD (4.1%) and the European Commission (4%) and is slightly more pessimistic than the Spanish government's and the State's Audit Office's (4.3%).

BBVA has reduced its growth expectations for the Catalan economy for this year and 2023. The bank's research service believes that this year the delay in international markets may have a negative impact on industry (which in Catalonia has greater weight than in the rest of Spain) due to the war in Ukraine and the persistence of logistical problems to supply chains. Despite this, consumption and investment will continue at a good pace and tourism will be one of the engines of activity.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its 2021 growth forecast for the Spanish economy and has been optimistic about the partial recovery of the world economy this year, despite warning of the danger of divergences between rich and poor countries and increasing inequalities.