The big news from the elections in Castile and León is that, for the first time in a long time, the expectations predicting a surge for Vox have not materialized. Polls forecasting a drop for the People's Party (PP) and a Vox surge to 19 seats and over 20% of the vote have instead led to a scenario that reinforces the two-party system, with both the PP and the Socialists gaining more seats (+2) than Vox (+1). Therefore, it is legitimate to ask whether the far-right wave is reaching its peak, especially considering that the campaign coincided with Donald Trump's escalating involvement in the Iran-Contra affair. However, two points need to be clarified. Vox's rise hasn't been as significant because it was already starting from a strong position in 2022, when it obtained 17.6% of the vote and 13 seats. The electoral system, especially in a territory with many constituencies, benefits the two major parties and disadvantages third parties, as has been the case. The second point is that, while the far right is not growing as much, the hegemony of the right is consolidating.

The president and candidate for re-election of the PP, Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, would win the elections again, equaling or slightly improving his results, but would fall far short of an absolute majority and would not be able to govern alone as he intended. According to various exit polls, the Castilian-Leonese leader, who is heading the popular party's list for the third time, would obtain between 30 and 32 seats, more or less like four years ago, when he achieved 31.

The right wing will continue to govern in Castile and León, where it has held uninterrupted power since 1987, when José María Aznar, before taking office, ousted the PSOE and inaugurated four decades of conservative hegemony in this region. The president and PP candidate for re-election, Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, has won the elections again and improved on the 2022 results, but falls short of an absolute majority and will not be able to govern alone as he had intended. The Castilian-Leonese leader, who is heading the People's Party list for the third time, obtained 33 seats, two more than four years ago, when he won 31, with a 65.2% voter turnout. Mañueco, who has already been in office for seven years, has not been negatively impacted by his handling of the summer wildfires in Castile and León, which led to political questioning and... the Prosecutor's Office opened an investigation against himThe president of Castile and León manages to curb the rise of Vox and consolidates his position as one of the major players. barons Populars. "Given the noise, the bleak outlook other parties saw, our region has chosen certainty and overwhelmingly supported the Popular Party's project," an elated Mañueco emphasized, highlighting the gap with the other two major parties. "We have tripled the gap we had with the Socialist Party and doubled Vox's votes," he proclaimed. The PP is not hiding its joy at the results and points out that it is "the party that has increased the most in percentage of votes." In this regard, they believe that Vox's decision to "block a center-right government in Extremadura has hurt them" because in the trackings Within the PP, Vox reached around 25% of the vote. However, the good results obtained by Mañueco are not enough to reach the 42 seats needed for an absolute majority in a chamber that, this time, has 82 representatives because it gained one in Segovia. The PP president will once again depend on Vox, which only managed to add one more deputy to the thirteen it already held, thus halting the growth of the far-right party in the other regional elections held in recent months. These are poor results for Santiago Abascal's party, which until now had grown significantly in each election. In any case, Abascal emphasized that this is "the third time in just a few months that Vox has grown in an election." Mañueco, therefore, will have to come to terms with Vox. It is certainly true that, unlike in Extremadura, where the popular María Guardiola has placed many obstacles in the way of an agreement with Vox to the point that elections could be repeated, the Popular Party president has extended a hand and will now do so with an undeniable victory.

That the survey places PSOE in first position in the elections in Castilla y León is a more common scenario than in Extremadura or Aragon. While in the two communities where this electoral cycle began, the Socialists have governed for more years than the Popular Party, the territory that takes over from them is a historic fiefdom of the PP. The conservatives have governed there uninterruptedly since 1987, when José María Aznar ousted the PSOE and inaugurated four decades of right-wing hegemony. In the largest autonomous community in Spain, the Socialists have only won there on two occasions, in 1983 and 2019 – coinciding with Pedro Sánchez's first victory in the State –, although seven years ago it did not allow them to reach the regional executive. In this Sunday's election, with Sánchez at his most complicated moment, everything points to the PP being the leading force, but it will once again depend on Vox.

With Citizens out of institutions, their former leaders have been relocating to the private sector – in some cases in a bizarre way like Albert Rivera–, or in parties, especially the PP. However, there is still a territory where Citizens retains electoral rights and aspires – without much confidence – to maintain them. The oranges are running in the Castille and Leo elections, this time predictably their last regional electoral dance.

Third regional election in less than three months. Castilla y León takes over from Extremadura, and for the next two weeks, Aragón becomes the battlefield for the main parties in the State. Pedro Sánchez, Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Santiago Abascal will be tested again on March 15 in elections that once again have a marked state-level significance. The recent decision by the PP's leadership to get directly involved in the negotiations with Vox to secure the investiture of candidates – María Guardiola and Jorge Azcón – in the two communities that have preceded it, certifies that the state leaders are risking much more than a territorial government in the race towards the general elections scheduled for 2027. For now, polls broadly depict a scenario very similar to Extremadura and Aragón.

The Public Prosecutor's Office of Castile and León will finally investigate the controversial handling of the August wildfires by Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, following a complaint filed by the Bierzo Aire Limpio (Clean Air Bierzo) Association against the president of the Castile and León regional government and his Minister of the Environment, Juan Carlos Suárez-Quiñones. According to the document obtained by the EFE news agency, the Prosecutor's Office opened the investigation into alleged crimes of malfeasance by omission, environmental offenses, failure to provide assistance, and other offenses related to the inaction and deficient performance of the regional administration. "The regional government had all the information to anticipate the situation, but chose not to reinforce the operation, despite past experience," the association points out, also noting that after previous disasters (such as the 2022 fires), the firefighting operation was not reinforced, nor were resources allocated to fighting the fires increased. Regional Minister Suárez-Quiñones, for his part, recalled that several complaints were also filed after the 2022 fires, but they were dismissed. In fact, he asserted that after those fires, "very strong" decisions were made regarding investment and operations, but that this year's fires occurred under "unknown circumstances." "We will provide all the necessary explanations," he added.

With dozens of firefighters demanding his resignation at the doors of the regional parliament, the president of Castile and León, Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, attempted to defend himself this Friday regarding his handling of the fires that have burned thousands of hectares in his community. "I would have preferred to appear with the full report. What is happening is too important and real to make political calculations," said the regional leader of the PP, addressing the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) faction, which promoted his appearance in Parliament this morning and, along with several other parties, called for his resignation. Mañueco estimated the number of hectares affected by the fires at 141,000, which particularly affected the provinces of León and Zamora, after 348 fires in 23 days and three fatalities; the plenary session observed a minute of silence in his memory.