This academic year began with almost 31,000 fewer students in Catalan schools and institutes than the previous one. This is just one example of how the declining birth rate is impacting the public and state-subsidized private education system, a system that has lost more than 55,000 students in compulsory education over the last five years. However, this demographic decline has not had the same impact on private schools, which, although a very small minority, have continued to grow slightly in student numbers. Specifically, according to data from the Department of Education analyzed by ARA, between the 2019-2020 and 2024-2025 academic years, the state-subsidized private school network lost up to 21,100 students in compulsory education (preschool, primary, and secondary). In the same period, the number of students in public schools decreased by 36,040. Meanwhile, in these six years, the private school has added 817 students.

Spain's population exceeds 49.5 million thanks to the arrival of foreigners, according to data from the INE, the Spanish statistics institute. The data also reveals that today, for the first time, the number of residents born in other countries surpasses 10 million, meaning one in five. Catalonia of the eight millionForeigners represent 19%, according to Idescat.

The mayor of Cunit, Jaume Casañas, wants the municipality to leave the Baix Penedès region and join the Garraf region, thus becoming part of the province of Barcelona. Casañas, who leads the Impulsem Cunit party, linked to Junts per Catalunya, is proposing a public referendum starting in 2027. Should the popular vote validate the proposal, approval would be required from the Catalan Parliament for the regional change and from the Spanish Congress for the provincial change. Casañas believes the referendum would garner a majority vote in favor: "90% of Cunit's current population has emotional ties to the province of Barcelona. On social media, we've detected that 80% of people are in favor of the regional and provincial change." The other parties represented on the council have not yet taken a position on the matter, but have not expressed opposition. Impulsamos a Cunit and the PSC have shared the local government since 2019 and have alternated in the mayoralty.

Catalonia is heading towards 10 million inhabitants by 2050, an increase of two million in the next 25 years, according to demographic projections. However, these forecasts have not taken into account the speed at which the current population of 8 million has been reached. Seven years ahead of schedule, this milestone was achieved in 2023, mainly due to the increase in the foreign population. It is precisely this argument that the far right uses to justify its xenophobic discourse on immigration policies: if the bulk of new immigrants arrive without resources, social spending to integrate them skyrockets. This issue has been straining relations within Junts for some time, and the party has hardened its stance to stem the flow of votes to Sílvia Orriols's party. In fact, Junts members openly oppose Catalonia reaching 10 million if the current reception conditions continue as they have been. "Neither the Catalonia of 10 million, nor the Catalonia of hatred," declared the mayor of Vic, Albert Castells, this week. It is also this framework that is causing discomfort to the left, which until now had relegated the debate to the background.

When the ARA was founded in late 2011 with the promise of seeking out—and reporting on—"the world to come," the country barely reached 7.5 million inhabitants. The goal of 8 million was envisioned on the still distant horizon of 2030, but reality has defied predictions, and the figure has been reached much sooner than expected, specifically seven years ahead of schedule—at the end of 2023. The explanation for what demographers have already dubbed as the second population boom of the 21st century —and we're barely past the first quarter— is primarily due to the arrival of foreign residents. Without this factor, the country would have been losing its total population for almost eight years. In fact, Catalonia's natural growth rate, that is, the difference between births and deaths, has been slowing down over the last fifteen years, even entering negative territory in the last seven. Since 2018, there have been more burials than deaths.

He died just ten days ago at 112 years old the Catalan Angelina TorresTeresa Fernández Casado, who until then was the oldest person in the country, was then officially named the oldest citizen in Spain. However, it now appears that this title could belong to someone else: a woman from León, born in 1913, claims to be the oldest woman in the country and intends to prove it by showing her ID card. The family of Teresa Fernández Casado maintains that she is 112 years old and regrets that the distinction of oldest person in the country was awarded to her. Carme Noguerawho would be a year younger than the woman from León. "My mother is the oldest person in Spain; no one else still alive was born in 1913," declares Manuela de Paz, her daughter, in an interview with EFE. She asserts that the family is unhappy because the organization Longeviquest—the ranking that validates older people globally—has confirmed that Noguera is the oldest person in the country without anyone contacting her mother to verify that the title rightfully belongs to her. Teresa Fernández Casado was born on July 29, 1913, and is a native of the village of Zambroncinos del Páramo, in León. Her daughter says that she is a woman deeply rooted in her land and has never had any interest in leaving her village: "My mother still lives in the same house where she was born," says Manuela de Paz. In fact, she is quite a personality in Zambroncinos del Páramo, where she has served as a living memory of the events of the last century. "The neighbors have always come to ask her about things, dates, or events that happened in Zambroncinos," her daughter says.

One in ten people living in Catalonia today (9.7%) arrived between 2021 and 2023. The figure (780,639 people) includes foreigners (the majority), people from other parts of Spain (a significantly lower number than in previous periods), and Catalans who had left and returned (10%: 40,710 people). The data comes from the 2024 population and housing census published this Thursday by the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Idescat). Overall, and in absolute terms, the population increase has meant 700,000 new inhabitants since 2014, reaching the current total of over 8 million, as deaths and emigration must be subtracted from the arrival figures. With the pandemic over, the attraction of people from elsewhere has surged again. Despite the increasing challenges in integrating newcomers due to the strain on social services (especially health and education), the Catalan economy and society possess remarkable dynamism and attractiveness. Catalonia is one of the regions in Europe with the most intense influx of migrants. Increasing numbers of skilled workers (the so-called expados) and many low-skilled workers have returned to perform essential jobs in the tourism, domestic work and care sectors.

One in ten people currently living in Catalonia (9.7%) have been there for less than four years, according to the 2024 population and housing census published this Thursday by the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Idescat). These new residents include foreigners who have migrated—the vast majority—as well as citizens from other parts of Spain and Catalans who had moved away and have returned home. The survey—with data from January 1, 2024—shows that 780,639 people arrived in Catalonia between 2021 and 2023. The population growth in Catalonia has surged following the shock of the 2020 pandemic, according to the data. Today in our country there are more citizens who arrived in Catalonia in 2023 than Catalans who arrived between 2011 and 2015.

John Maynard Keynes, so focused on the short- to medium-term that he left us the phrase "in the long run we shall all be dead," spoke at least once about the long term. It was in 1930 at a lecture at the Ateneo de Madrid. In the midst of an economy in deep depression and suffering from "a severe attack of economic pessimism," he expressed surprisingly optimism about the "economic possibilities of our grandchildren" (the title of the lecture). He said: "We are suffering, not from the rheumatism of old age, but from the growing pains generated by very rapid change." The expression "technological unemployment" is introduced in this lecture. Keynes concludes by adding (I paraphrase) that "the rate at which we shall arrive at plenitude (bliss) economic will depend on our ability to control demographics, our determination to avoid wars and civil strife, and our faith in science."

For almost two decades, Catalonia has experienced a sustained decline in the number of births. The most recent data from Idescat are overwhelming: in 2024, 53,793 children were born, a far cry from the nearly 89,000 in 2008. The birth rate has fallen below 7 births per thousand inhabitants (6.4‰ in 2024), compared to just fifteen years ago. And the fertility rate has plummeted to 1.08 children per woman of childbearing age, from 1.53 in 2008. This is a profound transformation that places Catalonia among the regions with the lowest fertility rates in Europe and poses challenges for the country.

Surely the biggest demographic myth is believing that we will ever be able to return to a society like it was before. "We will no longer be generations with large families, with women caring for many children," says Dolores Puga, a researcher with the Aging Research Group of the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC). Given this, adapting to the present may be more efficient, according to the expert, than trying to return to the past. And it can be, although the "nostalgic" discourse, conveyed by the far right, of increasing the birth rate by any means may be "very tempting," corroborates Andreu Domingo, deputy director of the Center for Demographic Studies (CED).

We didn't have public services and infrastructure sufficiently stressed by the Catalonia of 8 million people and the tourist overcrowding that the Catalan government appears before Parliament to tell us we must prepare for 10 million. Demographic studies say so. It seems the Catalan executive doesn't consider an alternative: demographic studies say so, period. As if demographic studies, and not public policies, decided a country's population.

Olot is one of the fastest-growing municipalities in Catalonia. Especially after the pandemic, it adds nearly 1,000 people each year, most of them immigrants, representing an annual growth rate of 10% that brings the population close to 40,000. The trend for the next 15 years is one of sustained growth, according to Idescat (Spanish Institute of Statistics and Census), and this sharp increase in population has already set off alarm bells for the Olot City Council. The mayor, Agustí Arbós, of Junts (Junts), has repeatedly stated that he believes it is "unacceptable" to maintain this pace and be able to guarantee the quality of public services in the municipality.

The reality is what it is. In the last ten years, Catalonia has grown by almost 700,000 inhabitants. As demographer Andreu Domingo explains in this week's dossier, the feeling among residents that there has been a meteoric change is true. It has happened. Catalonia now has eight million inhabitants, which demands a different type of management and investment than it was ten or twenty years ago. More resources are needed, or at least, efforts need to be reoriented according to new needs. However, this meteoric change is not only due to immigration, which is undoubtedly one of the key factors. It is a change that has many specific characteristics, many internal mobility factors, which affect some places more than others and, also, in one way in some places and in another way in others.

The Catalan capital is a unique demographic case study. "It's the epicenter and magnet of attraction, but instead of growing significantly, it has remained more or less stable over the last decade," explains Arlinda García Coll, a doctor in human geography at the UB and an expert in internal and international migration and residential mobility. "Barcelona is flat due to the replacement component," explains the demographer. In short: it's not growing as much because the people who arrive end up replacing—or expelling—those who already lived there.

Catalonia has gained 700,000 inhabitants in the last 10 years, between 2014 and 2024. It's as if the entire Baix Llobregat region had doubled in size and spread across a few, very specific areas of the territory. According to the experts consulted, this is a boom. The largest population since the end of the economic crisis and the second major growth peak of the 21st century. Last November, the number of inhabitants surpassed 8 million, but how have they been distributed within Catalonia? And what are the factors that generate these internal and external movements of inhabitants? At ARA, we have analyzed, municipality by municipality, the evolution of the population over the last 10 years to see how towns and cities are absorbing this increase, the migratory changes, and what impact this has on the most basic facilities and services, such as schools, healthcare centers, nursing homes, mobility, and, of course, housing.

Last November, Catalonia surpassed the 8 million population mark, and projections indicate that the number is growing. Where have these nearly 700,000 additional people who have arrived in the last ten years settled? How has this impacted public services, mobility, and municipal housing, not only the arrival of immigration but also the internal migration that has occurred? For more than two months, we have been analyzing the demographic data, municipality by municipality, to interpret and analyze it with the help of experts. We have also selected thirty significant municipalities and spoken with mayors and other experts to understand how they have managed it. The result is this Sunday's dossier, a bold approach to what has already been described as the second demographic boom of the 21st century.

These days, we've seen the consequences of the hate politics that cater to far-right forces. The events in Torre Pacheco were serious, and that's why we want to put them into context in this week's dossier. David Miró analyzes how the far right, especially Vox, has exploited them for political gain. Meanwhile, Albert Llimós has been on the ground and paints a picture of the situation through conversations with young people involved, his classmates at local high schools, and members of the Moroccan community in the Murcia municipality to understand why the teenagers were the ones who came out to defend themselves against the far-right attacks.

It's no surprise that so far this year, almost all of my articles have focused on the future of the European Union. I've never hidden my deep conviction about the need for a large, united, and powerful Europe with a key role in the future of humanity. I think this is very good for Europeans, but also for the entire global population and the planet itself. I've often written that I want to talk about this because the political and economic processes we've experienced in recent years aren't taking us in the right direction. To seize the opportunities before us and achieve the goals we desire, there are necessary actions that are now, in addition to being essential, extremely urgent.

Barcelona has reached its highest population ever in the last forty years: 1,732,066 inhabitants. The Catalan capital has been experiencing unstoppable demographic growth driven by immigration for some time now, but its census picture hides profound transformations. The city is increasingly aging and suffering a worrying loss of its child population. Two indicators highlight this change. On the one hand, the increase in residents between 25 and 44 years old leaving Barcelona, ​​who now account for half of the total number of emigrants. On the other hand, the percentage of children under 16 residing there has fallen to a historic low (11.9%). In other words, the Catalan capital has consolidated a pattern of emigration driven by young people and families with young children, who are moving abroad, primarily due to difficulties in accessing housing.