The last absolute majority in the Catalan Parliament was achieved in 1992 by Jordi Pujol's all-powerful CiU. Since then those hoping to govern have needed to enter agreements or directly coalitions. The result on February 14 will be no exception, because the polls predict a triple tie between ERC, PSC and JxCat (according to ARA, in this order). Therefore, one of the main topics of the campaign is who will support who after the elections. But what do the electorate of each party think?

The Barcelona metropolitan area is the main source of votes in elections and, therefore, one of the territories most coveted by the parties. In the last parliamentary elections, the parties with representation shared 1.8 million votes: whoever wins in this area has a good chance of winning in Catalonia as a whole. In the first 30 years since the restoration of democracy, the PSC reigned with an iron fist, but in the last decade it has become a much more unpredictable territory. In 10 years up to five different political colours have won: CiU, the PSC, the comunes, ERC and Cs. In the run-up to 14-F, the socialists can be expected to recover much of the ground that Cs took three years ago, but Esquerra has long been knocking on the door to dispute this territory. The battle is on.

If a pandemic election is already associated with a cumbersome rucksack of uncertainty, the sui generis catalan case has shown in recent weeks that everything can be even more complicated. A contested electoral postponement, a date imposed by a court, a government that claims it will have to tighten restrictions when what it ends up doing is relaxing them, thousands of people refusing to be at the polling stations, and a virus that continues to condition the everyday. That is why abstention is one of the variables that generate most interest. Tomorrow the ARA will publish the survey that the Institut Opinòmetre has elaborated throughout this week, in which a worrying fact stands out: the participation could be of 58%, one of the worst records ever. It is the estimation that Opinòmetre makes according to the answers of the 830 people who have participated in the study.