The last precedents of strong or very strong El Niño episodes left worrying data that were exacerbated by the influence of global warming. The super El Niño of 2015-2016 was the most powerful on record, with an oceanic warming index of more than 2.5 ºC. An extraordinary fact that contributed to 2016 being the warmest year recorded worldwide up to then.

The world is looking towards the Pacific with unease. Forecasts from major international climate agencies warn of the probable formation of what has popularly been dubbed a super-Niño over the coming months in this area of the planet. An episode of the El Niño phenomenon much more intense than usual, capable of shaking global climate. Its consequences could range from extreme droughts to torrential rains in different parts of the planet, but above all due to a clear and general rise in temperatures.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean warm more than usual. This warming alters the usual large-scale circulation of winds and rainfall. Normally, trade winds push warm water westward in the Pacific, near Indonesia and Australia. But when these winds weaken, the warm water shifts towards the central and eastern Pacific, especially off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador. This causes the sea temperature to rise and alters precipitation.

Forecasts from various international climate agencies indicate that we are on the verge of an El Niño episode that could be one of the most intense in decades. Popularly, it has been nicknamed Superniño, and its effects will be global, especially with more extreme heat. We analyze this phenomenon and what impact it may have in Catalonia.

Carlos Duarte (Lisbon, 1960) is one of the most prestigious oceanographers in the world. He now resides in Mallorca, but has lived in Catalonia, Canada, Australia, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. His lectures always provide revealing data about the sea, some alarming. But he always tries to find an optimistic approach in turbulent times. Duarte, moreover, is the scientific advisor for the congress 'Encuentro de los Mares' (Meeting of the Seas), held in Tenerife, where the scientific community, fishermen, and chefs meet for four days to exchange knowledge.

Amitav Ghosh (Calcutta, 1956), one of India's most important fiction writers, has for many years placed his pen at the service of climate activism. Ten years ago he published in English The great derangement: climate change and the unthinkable (now available in Spanish published by Capitán Swing with the title El gran delirio. Cambio climático y lo impensable). As he explained these days in the CCCB debates, Ghosh understands this "great derangement" as a collective disorder that makes us all incapable of assuming the gravity and reacting adequately to the climate emergency. An incapacity that he particularly denounces within literature.

Very few people know that oil was produced in Collserola. In the middle of the last century, owners of farmhouses in this mountain range surrounding Barcelona owned olive trees, made self-consumption oil from them, and sold the surplus. But with the abandonment of the countryside throughout Catalonia, all this productive activity was also lost and the olive trees of Collserola, some centuries old, were swallowed by the forest. If in 1956 21.5% of Collserola were cultivated land, now it is only 6.4%. This not only represents a loss of the typical biodiversity of the area, but also has a dangerous collateral effect: it increases the risk of fire.

The combination of a mass of warm air and the persistence of the anticyclone have caused us to leave behind an exceptionally warm April across the country, the warmest ever recorded at 104 out of the 122 stations of the Meteocat Automatic Meteorological Station Network, which have over 20 years of data. The head of the Climatology area of Meteocat, Marc Prohom, highlights that this atmospheric pattern has driven warm air from North Africa towards Catalonia, causing such high temperatures in the middle of spring.

Europe is the continent that is warming fastest in the world. This is causing a continued loss of snow and ice and increasingly extreme weather phenomena. In the year 2025 alone, several records derived from the climate crisis were registered across the continent, which caused serious consequences for the societies and ecosystems of all of Europe.

It’s not a race, but if it were, the climate emergency wouldn’t just be winning—it would be doing so with one feat after another. “It’s as if every year a new runner appeared and broke a record, and did so by a wide margin, and the following year it was broken again—that wouldn’t be normal,” says Francisco Doblas, head of the Earth Sciences Department at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), in a vivid analogy. The paradox is that, in this case, record highs are not achievements to applaud, let alone celebrate.

The Pyrenees are warming up at cruising speed due to the climate crisis. The average temperature across the mountain range has increased by 1.9 °C since 1959, a figure that rises to 2.7 °C in the summer. This means that, since the mid-20th century, the Pyrenees have lost twenty frosty days per year and gained 32 summer days (days with temperatures above 25 °C). Or, in other words: every decade, 3 frosty days are lost and 4.9 summer days are gained.

The Arctic is the fastest-warming region on the planet and is doing so at an unprecedented rate: up to four times faster on average than the rest of the Earth's land areas. And this has an enormous global impact because the ice in this ocean played a key role in regulating the Earth's climate, and it is now melting at an unprecedented speed. This is also changing the structure of the oceans, with a brutal impact on local communities and biodiversity.

"The Montreal Protocol agreed in the late eighties to reduce and eliminate gases that destroyed the ozone layer. All UN member states approved it, and agreed to end the use of these substances, which implied the change or elimination of products such as some aerosols or air conditioners. The result has been very satisfactory: the hole in the ozone layer is closing, and between the years 2040 and 2066 it will close completely. This can reduce global warming by up to 0.5 °C", remarked Xavi Segura, head of Meteorology at ARA, in the talk he gave in the majestic auditorium of the Reial Acadèmia de Ciències i Arts de Barcelona, an activity of Club Prèmium open to all subscribers.

In a remote corner of the planet, just 1,000 kilometers from the North Pole and surrounded by ice, lies a kind of modern-day Noah's Ark, designed not to save animals, but to preserve the future of global agriculture. Buried beneath a mountain of ice in the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard, the vast global seed vault has become a silent symbol of resilience in the face of the global uncertainties of the 21st century. Designed to ensure the continuity of spices and plant-based foods in the event of a catastrophe, this biodiversity sanctuary receives samples of crops from all over the world. And now, finally, the olive tree is also part of this select group. Therefore, the future of this symbol of the Mediterranean landscape and culture is guaranteed.

Global warming is unstoppable, and in the last ten years it has accelerated significantly. This is the conclusion of a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, published this Friday in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters. The study confirms that since 2015, global warming has increased by approximately 0.35°C per decade, compared to the slightly less than 0.2°C average per decade recorded between 1970 and 2015. This new rate of temperature increase is higher than in any previous decade since instrumental records began in 1880, leading the research group responsible for the study to conclude that the warming limits set for this century could soon be exceeded. "If the warming rate of the last ten years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5°C limit set in the Paris Agreement before 2030," warns Stefan Rahmstorf, a researcher at PIK and lead author of the study, in the article. "The rate at which the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how quickly we reduce global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels to zero," he states. According to Rahmstorf himself, the adjusted data show an acceleration of global warming since 2015 with a statistical certainty of over 98%. The researchers compiled the study using the five major global temperature datasets established worldwide (NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, ERA5). Interference from specific phenomena

"We can now demonstrate a strong and statistically significant acceleration of global warming since approximately 2015," says Grant Foster, a US statistician and co-author of the study. The data have taken into account "natural influences" that can interfere with and mask changes in the warming rate data, such as El Niño, solar cycles, and volcanic eruptions. According to Foster, this ensures that the long-term warming signal is "clearly more visible" and reliable. Taking all this into account, after correcting for the effects of El Niño and the solar cycle maximum, 2023 and 2024, which were exceptionally warm years, have turned out to be somewhat cooler than previously thought, but they remain the two warmest years since instrument records began. The study has confirmed that the acceleration of global warming began to become evident in 2013 or 2014. To determine if the rate of global warming has changed since the 1970s, the research team used two statistical tools. The first analyzes whether the temperature trend has been accelerating over time, and the second divides the data series into different periods to objectively detect any points at which the rate of warming changes. The study does not analyze the exact causes of this possible acceleration. However, according to the authors, current climate models already predict that the rate of warming may increase, so this behavior falls within the realm of what climate studies consider possible.

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The years between 2001 and 2020 were an intense period in terms of wildfires, forest pests, and strong winds. Before the end of the 21st century, these environmental disturbances could double in Europe, warns a study led by researchers from the Technical University of Munich and published in the journal ScienceWith the participation of Catalan organizations, including the Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), the Centre for Forest Science and Technology of Catalonia (CTFC), and the University of Girona, the research has determined that this is the future awaiting the European continent if greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly reduced. "The doubling of disturbance rates corresponds to the worst-case scenario, that is, if nothing is done to stop these emissions," explains CREAF researcher and co-author of the study, Josep Maria Espelta, who adds that, if they are limited, "the increase in disturbances could be contained." The research indicates that the disturbances that will increase the most are forest fires and insect infestations, while windstorms will increase more slightly. "Phenomena such as fires and infestations are determined by similar causes, such as the increase in temperature, and are therefore closely linked to climate change," Espelta points out. In this regard, the study specifies that the annual burned area in Europe could triple by the end of the century, making some episodes currently considered extreme commonplace. Meanwhile, the insects expected to see the greatest increase are wood-boring beetles. "Higher temperatures shorten their life cycles, allowing them to complete more than one per year, and also enabling them to reach areas that were previously colder," explains the expert. This series of increases makes the phenomenon even more alarming considering it follows a period of already high fire disturbances. "We are comparing it with data from a very high rate, which makes it relatively more worrying," warns Espelta.

The research has worked with the three climate scenarios determined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and projected the evolution of forests from 2020 to 2100. According to the data, the Mediterranean region—which includes Catalonia—is among the most vulnerable areas, as nearly nine percent of its forests are susceptible to pests due to episodes of high warming. High temperatures, as the study details, weaken Mediterranean trees and favor pests such as bark beetles, which destroy the wood of the tree "to the point that it can die." At a European scale, fires and pests can lead to a reduction in old-growth forests, which are already scarce—representing 3% of the total area of ​​the Old Continent—while young forests, which have less capacity to absorb CO₂, increase. "It's a mechanism that accelerates this whole process, and that also represents a change at all levels of the European landscape," explains Espelta. The results were obtained assuming business-as-usual forest management practices. However, the researchers assert that adding climate change-adapted solutions will increase forest resilience: "We need to decarbonize society, and that means being less dependent on fossil fuels and more on clean energy." Espelta also emphasizes the importance of landscape management and promoting agroforestry mosaics. "We must become aware of these new scenarios and increase self-protection measures," concludes the CREAF researcher.

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The rainfall in the western Mediterranean during the first two months of this year has been a third more torrential compared to the period before the planet warmed by 1.3°C. This is the conclusion of a report published this Thursday by the international group of scientists from World Weather Attribution (WWA), which analyzed the exceptional rainfall at the beginning of 2026 in northwest and southeast Spain, southern and northern Portugal, and northern Morocco. Specifically, the report concludes that in the southern regions, the increase in rainfall intensity has been 36%, while in the northern regions it has been 29%. Experts highlight the "unusual number" of storms and low-pressure systems that have affected the entire Iberian Peninsula and northern Morocco during January and February, winter months that are typically dry in Spain. In this period alone, nine major storms have already hit, an extraordinary number. The study attributes this increase in extreme weather events to human activity, specifically carbon dioxide emissions. Experts combined observed increases with climate model simulations, and the results demonstrate that human activity is the direct cause of at least an 11% increase in rainfall intensity in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula. "Weather patterns that were once more adaptable are now becoming more dangerous disasters, and that is exactly what climate change means, with increasingly intense and severe rainfall," explains David García García, one of the study's authors and a professor in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Aerospace Engineering. The epicenter of the extraordinary rainfall of 2026 was the municipality of Grazalema, in Cádiz, where in just a few days the amount of rain that usually accumulates over an entire year fell, exceeding 2,000 liters per square meter and causing widespread damage. In addition to the exceptional and intense rainfall, the report also highlights the episodes of hurricane-force winds that the Iberian Peninsula has experienced in recent weeks. This highly unstable weather pattern, according to the same study, has resulted from several factors. One of them has been the presence of high pressure systems—anticyclones—over northern Europe, causing an atmospheric blocking pattern that has diverted the jet stream and the usual circulation of storms towards lower latitudes. But it's noteworthy that this series of storms has been "supercharged" by atmospheric currents that have brought significant moisture from a major marine heatwave in the western Atlantic. This combination, a consequence of global warming, has intensified rainfall events in our country.

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Did you know that the world's wetlands are disappearing three times faster than forests? And that although they only cover 6% of the Earth's land surface, they harbor 40% of the world's biodiversity? This and much more is what is highlighted every February 2nd, World Wetlands Day. This date also reminds us of the urgent need to protect these fragile and often overlooked ecosystems. "People are guided by aesthetics, and a forest is more attractive than a wetland, which is often considered just a source of mosquitoes and bad smells," warns Margarita Menéndez, professor of ecology at the Faculty of Biology of the University of Barcelona. This lack of "attractive" animals in our country—unlike the hippos we might find on a safari in Kenya—means we ignore a hidden biodiversity of amphibians, reptiles, and macroinvertebrates that are the true driving force of the global food web.

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Storms and heavy rain continue to batter the Iberian Peninsula this winter, and this week Andalusia is the epicenter of the storms. Provinces like Seville, Cádiz, and Córdoba are the hardest hit by the abundant rainfall caused by Storm [name missing]. Leonardowith exceptional rainfall totals. The worst affected area was the municipality of Grazalema, in Cádiz, where almost 600 liters per square meter fell in just 24 hours on Wednesday. This record figure for the area is very similar to the rainfall recorded during the historic and tragic DANA storm of October 2014 in Valencia. And all that water is also having consequences for the subsoil. Grazalema is located at an altitude of over 800 meters in the Sierra de Cádiz mountains, a geographically exposed area that is very rainy and receives nearly 2,000 liters per square meter annually. The problem is that this amount of rain, which usually falls over an entire year, has already been exceeded between January and the first days of February. This exceptional rainfall has completely saturated the subsoil. The ground can no longer absorb any more water, which is gushing out uncontrollably everywhere, even through electrical outlets, toilets, and walls of houses. And a phenomenon little known until now has occurred: hydroseisms.

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They say all young people want to be civil servants. Well, Maria Serra is proof to the contrary. An activist since before she was 17, she has mobilized against the climate crisis, for feminism, for Palestine, for housing. She was a spokesperson for Fridays for Future (FFF) in Spain and an ambassador for the European Climate Pact, until she decided she didn't want to represent a militarized EU and resigned. At just 23, she has been in international forums to defend ideas that many might see as radical and typical of youth, but which she defends with conviction, arguments, and a clarity that many politicians would envy.

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