The Bank of Spain has increased its inflation forecasts, which it places, for this year and 2027, well above the targets set by the European Central Bank (ECB). The monetary body presented its quarterly macroeconomic forecast report this Friday, in which it also forecasts the growth of the Spanish economy.

It has been four months since the Fenix Report was released, and something unusual has happened in this country: the conversation has changed. It is not that the data has changed – the data was already there – but rather the way of looking at it. Before May, the phrase "the economy is doing well" meant that GDP was growing. Today, when someone says it, there is always someone else who asks: "And the GDP per capita?" This question, so simple, is what the report has managed to install in the Catalan public debate. And for that alone, it has been worth it.

The INE has published the GDP data for the year 2025, which confirm the phenomenon that has dominated the Spanish economy for decades: an ever-increasing concentration of economic activity and wealth in Madrid and an ever-widening gap between the capital of the Kingdom and the surrounding territories. If in the year 2000 the Madrid economy represented 17.5% of the Spanish total, in 2025 it has already reached 20%. In contrast, Catalonia keeps its share of the pie stable: it was 18.9% in the year 2000 and continues to be so 25 years later.

The Community of Madrid already accounts for 20% of the gross domestic product (GDP, an indicator that measures the size of an economy) of the State, while Catalonia remains in second place with 18.9%, according to data published this Wednesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE). These data show growth last year in Madrid's economy (2.7%) slightly above the Spanish average (2.6%), while Catalonia grew below it (2.5%).

The Spanish economy maintained growth during the second quarter of the year, despite the impact of the war in Iran on energy markets and international trade. Household consumption and the role of construction allowed the gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) of the State to maintain the good figures of recent years, as reported this Thursday by the National Statistics Institute (INE).

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has again revised upwards Spain's growth forecast for this year to 2.6%, four tenths of a percentage point higher than the estimates made in June. Furthermore, the organization has also revised upwards by one tenth of a percentage point Spain's forecasts for 2027, due to an improvement in domestic demand of one tenth. Thus, the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) of the State for 2027 is placed at 1.8%.

The debt ratio of the Spanish public administrations stood at 99.9% of the gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that shows the size of an economy) in July, 2.4 percentage points less than in the same period of the previous year, with a total amount of 1.744 trillion euros, according to data published this Thursday by the Bank of Spain. According to the estimate available for July, the ratio would have fallen below 100% for the first time since February 2020, just before the outbreak of the covid-19 pandemic. At that time, spending rules were suspended and the debt skyrocketed to deal with the shock that the pandemic caused.

The consumption of households and public administrations maintained the growth rate of the Catalan economy in the second quarter at the levels of the last three years, when it has continuously exceeded the European average. Thus, the Catalan gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) increased by 3% annually despite the difficulties added by the war in the Middle East, according to data confirmed this Monday by Idescat, the statistical institute of the Generalitat.

Matching the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of the main countries of the European Union (EU) may cost Spain between two and three decades of growth above the average. This is a path already initiated in 2013, but one that requires many more continuous years to equal the leaders in wealth per inhabitant, which are Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands, known as the EMU4. This is pointed out by the document The sources of growth in Spain and the main European economies: total factor productivity and sectoral heterogeneity,published by the Bank of Spain.

The Catalan economy could lose at least 0.5 percentage points of its gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) due to the impact of heatwaves. This is the figure provided by Caixa Enginyers in a study published this Monday based on data from the scientific journal Nature, which takes into account the effects of previous heatwaves on economic activity in the country. According to the entity's research service, Catalonia – along with the rest of Spain – would be one of the regions most affected by extreme phenomena in all of Europe. In fact, the study places Spain as the fifth country on the Old Continent where extreme climatic episodes can most affect the economy.

Construction and services boosted the Catalan economy during the second quarter. Specifically, according to data from the Institute of Statistics of Catalonia (Idescat) published this Friday, the gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) grew by 3% in Catalonia compared to the same period a year ago. The figure places the Catalan economy above the increase experienced in the rest of the State. The numbers are remarkable in a complicated context marked by the effects derived from the war in Iran and, above all, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Spanish economy maintained its high growth rate of recent years in the second quarter of 2026, above the European average. However, at the same time, the cost of living for families continues to rise, and this July will close at its highest levels since May 2024.

Increase productivity. The Government sets this as a priority in order to continue growing the Catalan economy. In the annual report published by the Department of Economy and Finance, the Generalitat points out that "despite the intense process of accumulation of physical capital and labor", the per capita income of the country is growing "more weakly than the European Union average over the last quarter of a century". "This paradox therefore points to an inefficient evolution of productivity", indicates the study, which recognizes that total factor productivity (TFP) – the reference indicator for measuring productivity – "shows a worse trajectory" than that observed in the European Union.

Sometimes, and especially from some political positions, the incorporation of immigrants into the labor market is presented as a zero-sum game. This means, according to game theory, that what some gain, others lose, and vice versa. From the most radical positions, newcomers are labeled as a threat to natives in the labor and social sphere. If many arrive, they take jobs at the expense of the native-born population, they claim. And they are also identified as greater beneficiaries of public benefits than contributors and payers.

Immigrant population contributed approximately 1.7 percentage points to the average annual growth of Spanish GDP (3.7%) and 0.5 points to the average annual growth of GDP per capita between 2022 and 2025, according to Pilar Cuadrado Salinas, a specialist in quantitative analysis and economic information management at the Bank of Spain, who highlighted that Spain is currently the country that contributes most to the demographic growth of the European Union thanks to immigration.

TheFènix Report, prepared by several renowned economists, has opened the debate on whether the Catalan economy is doing well or not. The study has caused controversy due to criticism of some productive sectors such as tourism and the meat industry, which it considers to be indirectly "subsidized", and for criticism of economic growth based on immigration rather than increased productivity of companies and workers.

The outbreak of war in Iran and the consequent increase in prices, particularly energy prices, led the government of Pedro Sánchez to approve a package of measures to alleviate the economic effects on companies and citizens. Four months after the start of the conflict, inflation has decreased, but not enough to withdraw all measures. Thus, the Spanish executive has decided to keep some of them active for three more months. That is, until September 30. Once approved in the Council of Ministers, they must be validated by Congress.

Economic optimism despite the war in Iran. The Spanish government updated the macroeconomic framework this Monday and forecasts that the economy will grow by 2.6% in 2026 (four tenths more than previously predicted) and by more than 2% in the next three years, i.e., until 2029, as detailed in a press conference by the First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, after a cabinet meeting where a new package of measures was precisely approved to mitigate the economic impact of the conflict, especially in energy matters.

The Airef, the independent body that controls public finances, warns that the debt write-off for autonomous communities will be "flawed" if not accompanied by a reform of the regional financing system. The president of Airef, Inés Olóndriz, has argued that "the logical course of action" would be: first, "realistic objectives", second, the reform of the financing system, and third, "measures to alleviate debt".

The Spanish economy held its ground in the first quarter of this year, despite the negative impact caused by the outbreak of the war in Iran and the consequences on energy markets and international trade. Household spending allowed the gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) of the State to maintain the good figures of the last three years, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE) reported this Thursday.