The conflict in the Middle East has not gone unnoticed in the update of the Bank of Spain's macroeconomic forecasts, despite the short timeframe between the outbreak of the war and the preparation of a new report. The supervisory body acknowledges that the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran and the ramifications in the region will have an impact on the growth of the Spanish economy, but above all on the evolution of prices. In fact, if the conflict becomes entrenched, the average inflation rate for 2026 could soar to 5.9% due to disruptions in the global energy market. However, the body chaired by former socialist minister José Luis Escrivá estimates that the package of fiscal measures from the Spanish government, which was validated by Congress this Thursday, will help to "cushion" the economic shock of a war that, for now, does not seem to have an end.validated by Congress will help to "cushion" the economic shock of a war that, for now, does not seem to have an end.In general terms, the Bank of Spain (BdE) forecasts that gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator used to measure the size of an economy) will grow by 2.3% in 2026, as indicated in the report published this Friday. This may seem contradictory because it represents a slight improvement compared to the December forecasts, i.e., the pre-war forecasts, when the entity forecasted that the Spanish economy would grow by 2.2% in 2026.

"The conflict in the Middle East will test the resilience of the global economy." No beating around the bush. The new report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) revises its growth forecasts taking into account the impact of the war initiated in Iran.

The Catalan economy ended 2025 with annual growth of 2.7%, one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the Spanish average, according to data published this Friday by Idescat, the Catalan government's statistical agency. Economic growth, clearly higher than the European average for another year, was driven primarily by business investment and household spending.

The arrival of foreign workers has not only meant a boost for the Spanish and Catalan economies In recent years, the trend has shifted from a lack of immigrants to simply "easier" to enter more productive and better-paying jobs. The former are thus filling the positions that workers of origin do not want. This is confirmed by the research and analysis center Funcas in its report.Immigration in Spain: challenges, impact and policies Published this Thursday, the report estimates that foreign workers have contributed 47% to the growth of the Spanish economy since 2022. This means that almost half of the increase in gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) over the last five years can be attributed to the arrival of migrants. Funcas highlights that the foreign population residing in Spain has risen from marginal figures to become "an unavoidable structural component of Spanish demographics and the labor market." This is illustrated by the active population, which includes those who are working or actively seeking employment: since 2019, it has grown by 7.8%, equivalent to approximately 1.8 million new workers, almost all of whom are of foreign origin. "This is a supply shock unparalleled by the major European economies, which has boosted Spain's productive potential." Furthermore, "the sectoral and occupational bias of the foreign workforce has allowed for the growth of activities that were facing labor shortages," the study concludes.

The Spanish economy accelerated its growth rate during the last three months of 2025, nearly doubling the expected growth rate for the eurozone, according to preliminary data released Friday by the National Statistics Institute (INE). This placed Spain among the leading growth countries in the European Union for another quarter. Meanwhile, the cost of living for families moderated in January after three consecutive months of price increases.

The US economy continues to grow at a strong pace. US gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures economic activity) grew by 1.1% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous three months, according to the second estimate published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce. Meanwhile, Germany, Europe's largest economy, confirmed its return to growth, closing the last three months of last year with quarterly growth of 0.2%. In annualized figures, US GDP growth was 4.4%, six-tenths of a percentage point higher and the best figure in two years. This also represents a significant improvement over the 0.6% decline observed at the beginning of 2025, when US GDP fell for the first time since early 2022. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending and exports. Imports, which are subtracted from GDP calculations, decreased. Compared to the second quarter, household spending accelerated, and investment, exports, and government spending rebounded, while imports declined less in the third quarter than in the second.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday raised its economic growth forecasts for 2026 for the global economy, the eurozone, the United States, China, and Spain. The organization noted that "headwinds [to growth] stemming from changing trade policies are offset by tailwinds linked to increased investment in technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), more so in North America and Asia than in other regions," according to its report.

The German economy, the largest in Europe, left behind the recession in 2025 and recovered growth after two consecutive years of declining economic activity.

Analysts at the Bank of Spain are heading into their Christmas break with a positive outlook regarding the country's economic growth. In line with other international organizations, and also with the Spanish government, the supervisory body forecasts that the Spanish economy will grow more than previously expected in 2025 (2.9%), as well as in 2026 and 2027. And they expect it to grow strongly. Thus, for next year, they estimate a rebound in gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator used to measure the size of an economy) of 2.2%, while in 2027 they project 1.9%, as detailed in the macroeconomic projections published this Tuesday. This represents an upward revision of four and two tenths of a percentage point, respectively, compared to the projections from last September.

Analysts at the Bank of Spain are heading into their Christmas break with a positive outlook regarding economic growth in the country. In line with other international organizations, and also with the Spanish government, the supervisory body forecasts that the Spanish economy will grow more than previously expected in 2025 (2.9%), as well as in 2026 and 2027. And they expect strong growth. Specifically, they estimate a rebound in gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator used to measure the size of an economy) of 2.2% next year, while in 2027 they project 1.9%, as detailed in the macroeconomic projections published this Tuesday. These figures represent upward revisions of four and two tenths of a percentage point, respectively, compared to the September projections.

The productivity growth of Catalan workers was significantly higher than that of employees in the Community of Madrid, and also much higher than the Spanish average, according to 2024 regional accounting data published this Tuesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE). According to this agency, Catalan productivity improved by 1.82%, while that of Madrid workers increased by only 0.04%. The Spanish average stood at 1.20%. In contrast, workers in Madrid were much better paid than their Catalan counterparts. The average salary in Madrid was €46,850 per year, while in Catalonia it was €43,411. The INE includes all types of compensation received by the worker in the average salary, whether in cash or in kind, overtime pay, and social security contributions. In both cases, the average salary was significantly higher than the national average of €40,514 per year. In the ranking of highest-paid workers, Madrid takes first place (€46,850), followed by the Basque Country (€45,321), Catalonia (€43,411), and Navarre in fourth place (€43,109). At the other end of the spectrum, the lowest average salary is in Extremadura (€33,695), behind Murcia (€34,573) and Andalusia (€35,505). Another aspect covered by the INE (National Institute of Statistics) is the growth in investment, which, according to the latest data from Idescat (Statistical Institute of Catalonia) It has become the main engine of the Catalan economyThus, according to the INE (National Institute of Statistics), investment in Catalonia in 2024 grew by 7.1%, the same percentage as in the region presided over by Isabel Díaz Ayuso, and two points above the national average (5.1%). In fact, the regions where investment grew the most last year were Ceuta and Melilla (9.7%), Cantabria (8.8%), and Catalonia and Madrid (7.1%). Investment fell in only one region, La Rioja, with a decrease of 1.7%.

Round numbers, like birthdays, captivate us with their certainty. The 50th anniversary of the dictator's death—Franco—holds a mirror up to us, reflecting both successes and failures. The mirror that generates the most unanimity among economists is GDP per capita, seen as a measure of prosperity. We have reliable data to compare the GDP per capita of each of Spain's current autonomous communities in 1975 (they didn't yet exist, but their boundaries were statistically well-defined) and today (2024). In 1975, Catalonia's GDP per capita was 28% above the national average. This was the lowest figure achieved in the entire previous century. The decline was particularly rapid between 1920 and 1930 and between 1960 and 1975. In both cases, in addition to the similar political regime—military dictatorship—there was a very strong wave of immigration. In fact, these were the two largest waves of immigration of the entire 20th century.

The US economy would have barely grown in the first half of 2025 were it not for the investment in data centers made by major artificial intelligence (AI) companies, according to a study by Jason Furman, a professor of economics at Harvard. This data, corroborated by other economists, lends further weight to the argument that the AI industry is affected by a bubble that is causing its companies to become oversized. Specifically, Furman's calculations estimate that although investment in software and equipment represents only 4% of total US gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy), it contributed 92% of all growth recorded in the country between January and June. In other words, without the large investments in AI, the annualized growth rate of US GDP would have been only 0.1%, practically zero.

The Catalan economy continues to grow at a slower pace than the Spanish economy compared to a year ago, but at a faster pace compared to the previous quarter, according to preliminary data on gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) for the third quarter of the year published this Thursday by Idescat, the statistics agency of the Catalan government. Furthermore, Catalonia's economic activity figures far exceed the European Union average. Specifically, between July and September, Catalan GDP expanded by 2.4% compared to the same period in 2014, a figure four-tenths of a percentage point below the average for the rest of Spain. the one recorded by the state GDP. So, Catalonia has had two consecutive quarters followed by an annual growth rate below Spain's after several years of faster growth. However, in the third quarter of this year, the Catalan economy grew by 0.7% compared to the second quarter, one-tenth of a percentage point more than the rate recorded for Spain as a whole. For another quarter, however, Catalan GDP maintained a growth rate well above the European average. Specifically, the total of the 27 EU member states grew by 1.5%, nine-tenths of a percentage point less than Catalonia, while the 20 countries of the eurozone (those that share the common currency) grew by 1.3%. Quarterly, they registered increases of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, also below Catalonia's 0.7%.

It is common to set economic policy targets as minimum percentages of GDP for the corresponding expenditure. Examples: Trump demands 5% of GDP for defense from Europe, the EU 3% for R&D investment, the OECD 1% for environmental spending, Spanish university laws 1% for universities, and a proposed popular legislative initiative (ILP) 6% for education. There are also targets, less tied to specific policies, that demand maximum levels. For example, the EU Stability and Growth Pact sets a maximum fiscal deficit of 3% of GDP.

The Spanish economy continued to grow during the summer at a rate significantly higher than that of most other European countries. Business investment and household consumption were the two main drivers of growth at a time when the external sector (exports and tourism) slowed its activity.

The Catalan government forecasts that the Catalan economy will grow by 2.5% this year, one-tenth less than the estimate made last spring due to the effects of the trade war, and by 2.1% next year, one-tenth more, as the impact of the tariff dispute is expected to diminish. These estimates are included in the 2025-2026 macroeconomic scenario of the Ministry of Economy, which "confirms the gradual normalization of the Catalan economy toward rates close to 2%, after a few years of unusually strong growth." According to the document, some 110,000 jobs will be created during the years 2025 and 2026, while the unemployment rate will stabilize at around 8% (8.4% in 2025 and 8.2% in 2026).

Catalonia is growing. Its GDP is growing at a faster pace than most European countries, and employment has recovered strongly after the years of crisis. But that dynamism does not reach everyone.: Every year, more and more Catalan households are struggling to make ends meet – today it's already one in ten. Wages have risen, yes, but the cost of living has done so moreWhile the economy expands, the purchasing power of a large part of the population stagnates. And this imbalance explains why, despite growth, we don't live better. But this reality is not the same for everyone. While one part of the population sees their salary lose purchasing power, another continues to accumulate income and profits. The latest report from the CNMV is a good example of this: the management positions of companies in The Ibex earns 55 times more than its employeesThis growing gap is not only a symptom of inequality: it calls into question how the benefits of growth are distributed. The real challenge is not to grow more, but to grow equitably.

President Salvador Illa said this Tuesday in the Catalan Parliament that "immigration makes us a better country." Is this true? Before responding based on ideological bias, for or against, it's necessary to look at the data. The study was presented this Tuesday. Demographic transition, immigration and aging in Catalonia 2024-2050, Prepared by Josep Oliver, professor of applied economics at the Autonomous University of Barcelona and presented at the Association of Economists of Catalonia.

Last Tuesday, the INE published the first estimates on the macroeconomic figures of the autonomous communities corresponding to the year 2024. The following day's ARA devoted two pieces: theeditorial (from which I took the title of this article) and another in the Economics section. The first, quite rightly, emphasized that GDP growth—which measures the size of the economy—is not as important as GDP per capita growth—which divides GDP by the population and therefore measures material prosperity. In plain language: GDP is how much we all produce; GDP per capita, how much we touch. Obviously, the important thing is the latter.