The most common question these days among the journalists in Congress themselves is: "And you, what do you think will happen on November 29th? Who will win? It is curious to verify that, at first, practically everyone takes it for granted that the PP will prevail and that it will govern with the support of a few dozen Vox deputies, between 50 and 70. However, if the person being asked looks unsure, their interlocutor also begins to search for arguments to give consistency to their prediction, as if they needed to convince themselves that their forecast is well-founded and a foregone conclusion.

"Let them hear it loud and clear: I love you". This is how the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, addressed his wife during a rally in Fuenlabrada following the federal committee meeting that approved the PSOE's candidate lists for November 29th. In an event charged with high emotion, Sánchez began his speech by referring to Begoña Gómez, his wife, who is facing trial and was seated in the front row. "They have tried to break us in every way and have achieved just the opposite. Today we are more united and stronger than ever. Let them hear it loud and clear: I love you," he declared, while also thanking her for being his wife and the mother of his daughters. Then Gómez went up to the stage, and they hugged and kissed before the audience's ovation. Later, he made a post saying that he loves her with the video of the scene.

The President of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sánchez, has stood by the spokesperson for the PSOE executive, Montse Mínguez, following the controversy over her partner's real estate properties. When asked from Brussels about the real estate management companies of Mínguez's partner, Sergi Vélez, the socialist leader stressed that he "of course" supports her. Mínguez was ratified this Wednesday as the lead candidate for the socialists for Lleida.

The first barometer from the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) following the housing protests has catapulted the PSOE, which would position itself as the leading force nearly twelve points ahead of the PP. According to the survey conducted between October 1st and 6th, coinciding with the vote in Congress on the Maricarmen decree and the announcement of a snap election, the socialists would obtain 34% of the votes, while the popular party would fall to 22.2%. Regarding the barometer from a month ago, Pedro Sánchez's party would grow by three points (in September the CIS gave them a voting estimate of 31%), while Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party would retreat by 3.3 points (compared to the 25.5% in the previous survey). Unlike the PP's decline, the CIS forecasts growth for Vox, which goes from 16.6% to 17.1% (half a point more) and reduces the distance with the popular party to just 5.1 points, when in September it was 8.9 points.

Former Adif president Isabel Pardo de Vera, indicted at the National Court in the framework of the Ábalos case, shows herself willing to collaborate with the justice system and fires back at the PSOE. In an interview with El Mundo, published in the midst of the general election pre-campaign, the also former Secretary of State for Transport states that former minister José Luis Ábalos and other Spanish government officials had proposed "loyal people" to "place in positions of the Adif executive leadership". "Up to almost twenty resumes", she asserts, and adds that she "always" refused because the candidates did not meet the necessary "qualifications".

Pedro Sánchez Castejón (Madrid, 1972) is, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, "an enigma, wrapped in a mystery inside a hieroglyph". Is he the cynical, cold and unscrupulous monster that the right paints? Or is he the empathetic and compassionate leader for the people who are struggling most that the left defends? Is he an aspiring dictator or, on the contrary, the last wall standing against the global far-right? The only certainty is that between the current Pedro Sánchez and the one who burst onto the political scene in 2014 there is an abyss. And it is this evolution, riddled with dramatic twists, changes of opinion and an undeniable capacity to overcome adversity and adapt reality to his needs, that has led to what we know today as Sanchismo. This is the story of the great prestidigitator of recent Spanish political history.

The name of Iván Redondo (San Sebastián, 1981), chief of staff to Pedro Sánchez between 2018 and 2021, is associated, just like the socialist leader's, with great publicity stunts. The political consultant was one of the architects of the motion of no confidence with which the Spanish prime minister first came to power. Later, from the pinnacle of Moncloa, he was also decisive in the formation of the first coalition executive between the PSOE and Podemos. After a few years away from the political front line, Redondo has been regaining media presence following the publication at the beginning of May of his book The Manual (Contraluz, 2026) and has not closed the door on a possible return to politics.

High-voltage pre-campaign in Spain for the November 29th elections. In the middle of 2026, eight years after Pedro Sánchez reached the presidency of the Spanish government, the PP draws an apocalyptic scenario if it does not win hand-in-hand with Vox to push for a "decisive change," while the Spanish government promises, now for real, to solve housing problems with courage and fight against those who "pull the strings" and harm the working classes. In the Andalusian town of Dos Hermanas and in Madrid, socialists and conservatives have contrasted two apparently antagonistic models of the country using language that has long denoted aggression.

No one could say for sure now even what the turnout will be for the general elections on November 29th, but if there is half as much interest in the rest of Spain as there is inside Madrid's M-30, it will be quite high. What is being presented as the mother of all campaigns has had an unexpected start, following the reactions to the eviction of Maricarmen Abascal and her death on Wednesday. The PSOE has pinned all its hopes on the mobilization that has been set in motion following these events. The socialists are masters at handling emotional climates, but in this case, it is not even necessary. The reaction to the Maricarmen case has been quite spontaneous because there was a lot of accumulated frustration over the housing problem. It had to explode someday and it has done so now, which has given Pedro Sánchez an opportunity to try to overcome all expectations.

What is happening with Gabriel Rufián is what was bound to happen to Esquerra sooner or later. For years now, the speeches of Esquerra's leader in Madrid have sounded more like Podemos or Sumar than Esquerra. He often ignores the possibility of speaking in Catalan. He has ended up designating himself as the critical conscience of the Spanish left. His level of popularity in Spain among voters in this segment is enormous; Rufián knows how to polarize and, living up to his phrase “Less libraries and more TikTok,” his ability to gain audiences on social media is great. He has declared himself willing to head a plurinational list of all the parties to the left of the PSOE. And his party has told him no. At the time of writing this analysis, Rufián has still not decided to be the head of Esquerra's list under the conditions that the party wants.

The PP's request to charge the PSOE in the Leire Díez case has not been successful. The judge leading the case at the National Court, Santiago Pedraz, has rejected, for now, that Pedro Sánchez's party be considered an investigated legal entity, as some proceedings in the framework of the case are still pending.

Ada Colau is not giving up on her crusade to unite the left at the national level. The former mayor of Barcelona has once again urged Gabriel Rufián, who has a good relationship with Podemos, to join the Broad Front left-wing coalition and to use "his leadership" to help her include the various formations to the left of the PSOE. In an interview on La Sexta, Colau considers that the republican spokesperson is a key actor to "meet the citizenry's demand": a single proposal for the upcoming Spanish elections on November 29th.

The Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office believes there are grounds to charge the PSOE within the framework of the Leire case at the National Court, but considers that it is still “premature” to take this step. It is the public prosecutor's response to the request made by the PP –which leads the popular accusations– two days ago, the day after the call for the elections on November 29. The prosecutor argues that first, pending proceedings must be carried out, such as, for example, the statement as an investigated person by Santos Cerdán, former number three of the PSOE. The popular party wanted Pedro Sánchez's party to be investigated for the crimes of illegal financing, bribery, influence peddling, money laundering, and embezzlement.

This morning began with a rumor that turned into a question: after Junts announced that it will not vote for the two housing decrees, will Pedro Sánchez announce the calling of elections? Because the scenario is favorable: the Maricarmen case has gone around the world (it has even reached the Pope), it has brought people out onto the streets; with the two decrees, the PSOE was siding with the people on the street, ergo if there has ever been a minimally favorable situation for the PSOE to call elections, it was this one. The Maricarmen case has erased Ceuta from the debate. With Ceuta you could not go to elections, but with Maricarmen you can. Now there is a clean cut: right and left.

Juan is 72 years old and walks among the tents pitched at Puerta del Sol. He has just taken a photo and shows it: it is the diamond-shaped plaque beneath the sign that gives this Madrid square its name, which was placed by Manuela Carmena's city council in homage to the 15-M movement. "We were sleeping and we woke up," he says. Juan looks at it and recites it out loud, only to then explain that he has two children aged 37 and 39 who only managed to move out three years ago. "We thought that with a progressive government everything was already done, and in reality, nothing was done," he laments. This is a sentiment shared among the protesters who are in Puerta del Solin the state capital: it is palpable in the conversations, on the banners, and in the public statements of the Tenants' Union. Are we facing Pedro Sánchez's 15-M?

The eviction of Maricarmen Abascal has triggered a wave of indignation that was visible on Wednesday in the streets of Madrid, Barcelona, and various cities across the State, and it was repeated this Saturday in a demonstration in the center of the Spanish capital that ended in an encampment. Under the slogan Not one more Maricarmen, thousands of people gathered at the Puerta del Sol, where the seat of the government of the Community of Madrid is located, to walk to the Madrid City Hall and finish at the Congress of Deputies. In total, 25,000 people took to the streets, according to the Spanish government delegation – 300,000 according to the organizers. The Madrid Tenants' Union ended the demonstration by calling for an encampment at the Puerta del Sol, and tents spread across this square in the center of Madrid throughout the night.

In recent days, a new torpedo has emerged that the PP is using to fire against Pedro Sánchez and the Spanish government. Last week, Beatriz Biedma, the judge from Badajoz who investigated and sent the brother of the PSOE leader to the dock, asked to appear as a private prosecutor at the National Court in the case regarding Leire Díez. The reason? The alleged maneuvers to remove her from the investigation of the David Sánchez case. Since then, news has been appearing in a cascade speaking of an alleged relationship between the Los Rochos drug trafficking clan and those christened politically and media-wise as the sewers of the PSOE. And the PP has clung to it during the control session in Congress to pounce on the Moncloa.

The PSOE is losing support, but it is holding firm and would win the elections again, according to the first CIS poll after the crisis in Ceuta. The September barometer, published this Monday, gives the socialists 31% of the votes, two points less than in the July survey, and sees how the PP narrows the gap, which stands at just 5.5 points of difference – in the previous one it was almost eight –. The popular party, however, only rises half a point in vote estimation, from 25% to 25.5%. The far-right Vox party, which is focusing a large part of its discourse on the migration crisis, obtains limited growth of 1.3 points (from 15.3% to 16.6%), while Se Acabó la Fiesta, the party of the ultra Alvise Pérez, falls from 2.6% to 1.8%. "The real poll will take place at the ballot box," said PSOE spokesperson Montse Mínguez on Monday regarding this, even though this survey is much more favorable than the polls published last week. From the newspaper El País to La Razón and Abc, they gave a clear victory to the right-wing vote against the support for the left. For this reason, the PP has described the CIS forecast as a "joke" and a "bad taste prank", reports Andrea Zamorano.

The PSOE maintains unchanged the script it has established since the Leire Díez case broke out and continues to build a wall between Ferraz and the woman known as the socialist plumber. Now it has been the turn of Ana María Fuentes, the current party manager, who has testified at the National Court as under investigation for forgery of commercial documents. The Civil Guard and Judge Santiago Pedraz suspect that she falsified invoices and engagement letters to get money to Leire Díez and, in turn, conceal the payments. Sources present at the statement explain to ARA that Ana María Fuentes has shifted the blame onto Santos Cerdán, who at that time was the party's organization secretary and is also under investigation, alleging that he was the one who made the decisions and who ordered and gave the go-ahead to the engagement orders, invoices, and payments. She defended that she did what he told her, that she limited herself to paying and that she "did not control" expressly and specifically what the money was spent on.

The week ends with the hangover from yesterday's debate in Congress. Just 24 hours later, what we anticipated yesterday on the fly is already being confirmed: Sánchez's explanations arrived late, remain overshadowed by the reality of the thousands of people who are still wandering through Ceuta and, therefore, the Spanish president is doomed. Neither the opposition nor the investiture partners believe that Morocco had nothing to do with it (it is impossible for the illegal displacement of seventy thousand people to go unnoticed by a regime like Morocco) and therefore Sánchez moves between the figure of someone who, for the sake of state, does not want to antagonize a neighbor with the capacity to complicate your life and that of a president who is a victim of blackmail by Morocco. The fact that Sánchez is sentenced is a metaphor, but for the PP and Vox it is a wish. Feijóo said yesterday that “Sánchez will pay for his management, at the polls and in the courts”. And the fact is that Vox has long been reminding that Sánchez can be tried for treason, a procedure that is regulated in article 102 of the Constitution and which would be handled by the criminal chamber of the Supreme Court and which consists of an initiative by a quarter of the members of the Congress of Deputies and requires the approval of half plus one of the deputies (this would be 176), and the PP and Vox alone do not reach it, they are 169.Beyond when and how the legislative term ends, the case has other equally serious dimensions. For example, the power of Morocco, an ally of the United States, with a good relationship with Israel, and which receives money from the EU to regulate migratory flows. This gives it great bargaining power. As our head of International, Francesc Millan, explains today, in this column in which he draws the contrast between how the EU stands together when Russia attacks, but when the problem has been at its southern border, the problem was Spanish, not European. Mind you, while we talk about geopolitics, yesterday more than 80 people appeared dead on a migrant boat that arrived in the Canary Islands. The boat had left Gambia 26 days ago. After decades of apparently predictable life, we have entered the era of life under threat, a hybrid, indirect, disruptive threat that prevents making plans and living under the impression (more or less based on real events) that life depends on us and not on external, geopolitical factors.Speaking of violent disruptions, yesterday the film Cronos, about the attacks on La Rambla and Cambrils in July 2017.I had the opportunity to watch it and I recommend it to you. You start watching it with a knot in your stomach and you finish it the same way.The pace set by the director is very high and sustained, the script is clear, the acting is competent, and the production is well-resourced. The story is told, above all, from within the Mossos, from Trapero to the commanders who led the capture of the terrorists, which lasted four days, passing through the Mossos' communication director, Patrícia Plaja, and her impeccable crisis communication during those days. The political dispute between the Spanish government and the Generalitat over the management and information regarding the attack is noted, as well as the regrettable leak of The Mossos-The note to make the Mossos and the Generalitat look bad. What is not provided as context is that there was only a month and a half left until October 1st. And the state of shock in Ripoll is also well noted. Not so much the story of boys who were apparently integrated but were ripe for radicalization. But since we are talking about a two-hour film and not a six-part series, many narrative threads come to mind that remain to be unfolded.