Geopolitics has always been an important factor in explaining the economy, but at the current historical moment, the way in which major powers wield political power over the economic landscape represents a turning point. There has been extensive debate to find compelling economic reasons behind the US intervention in Venezuela. However, some analysts are beginning to suspect that a particular vision of the exercise of power, and not solely or even primarily economics, is the prevailing reason behind many of the Trump administration's decisions. Venezuelan crude is relatively expensive to extract, and it is unclear whether major oil companies consider it profitable, under current conditions, to invest the enormous sums required to substantially increase current production levels. The US administration may value control over Venezuelan crude as an opportunity to extend its influence over the market and manage future inflationary pressures, but this factor does not appear, for now, to be decisive. Despite the rebound in oil prices following the situation in Iran, the underlying trend is downward.

The debate on the transformation of the production model is often presented in terms of reducing or increasing the weight of certain sectors. The activities to be reduced would be the least productive, such as tourism, as opposed to the most productive, such as industry. Without going into the core of this debate, it is worth making some clarifications about the relationship between productivity, employment, and the remuneration of labor and capital in the different economic sectors. Tourism, for example, is not really a single sector of activity. It is a diverse economic and social phenomenon with a significant impact on different branches of activity (from hospitality to commerce, including transportation, cultural and sports activities, and the food industry).

Recently, two emblematic publications have been presented that take stock of the Catalan economy of the previous year and point out perspectives for the current year: Economic report of Catalonia, published by the thirteen Catalan chambers of commerce for 60 years, and theAnnual report, Prepared by the Department of Economy and Finance of the Generalitat. Both publications agree in highlighting a change in the growth pattern in which domestic demand is progressively taking over from external demand, in a context marked by geopolitical uncertainty, unleashed by the reckless tariff policy of the United States.

In economics, as in any other field, constantly repeated clichés can become commonplaces that end up shaping majority public opinion. Regarding the recurring issue of the Catalan production model, the idea has taken hold that the country is relentlessly deindustrializing, turning into a "tourist factory," which would largely explain the slowdown in productivity and the stagnation of the Catalan standard of living. Like all persistent clichés, this view of things has some truth, although the reality is much more nuanced. A particularly damaging consequence of clichés is that they divert attention from other facts that are equally or more relevant. In this case, they hide some underlying trends that are less visible, but no less significant.

Between 2019 and 2023, the number of migrants in OECD countries increased by almost 30%. This is, therefore, a global phenomenon that has been particularly intense both in Catalonia and in the country as a whole: three out of every four jobs created between 2019 and 2024 were filled by people born abroad. It is estimated that 31% of the working-age population in Catalonia and 42% of those between 30 and 44 years of age were born outside of Spain, and that 40% of the child population in Catalonia (between 0 and 4 years of age) has at least one parent born abroad. We are facing a structural change that demands an informed and calm debate, comparing opinions with facts.

The system of ocean currents that runs through the Atlantic prevents the countries located further north in Europe from freezing under Arctic temperatures. It is something like a natural thermostat, composed of a flow that transports warm, surface waters from the coast of Florida to the north and another flow in the opposite direction of colder, deeper waters. There is a certain risk that climate change could alter these currents, intensifying extreme weather events on both sides of the North Atlantic. Apart from this, the world economic system also depends on a delicate balance of trade and financial currents and countercurrents between the main economies. Over the last few decades, the United States has acted as the main driver of world demand for goods and services. By spending more than it earns from its domestic production, the American economy drives the export machinery of other large economies, such as China, Japan and Germany. In return, these countries recycle a significant part of their commercial income by buying financial assets denominated in dollars – shares of listed companies and American public and private debt.