The PP and Vox have taken four months to reach an agreement in Extremadura that seems like a pact of circumstances, signed because time was running out, but which contains enough conflictive points to think they will have many problems putting it into practice. Immigration and healthcare will be the most controversial aspects, because the mentality with which these two chapters are treated is clearly restrictive of rights. The campaigns that have been launched previously to prepare the ground will not satisfy the expectations of the signatory parties. Spanish society, by a large majority, does not share the idea that immigrants are a group of criminals responsible for the saturation of public healthcare, while receiving unjustified subsidies.

Political life in Madrid is currently unfolding between two scenarios. Firstly, the courts, due to the start of the trials for corruption cases involving the PP and the PSOE. And secondly, in the realm of international relations, concerning everything related to the situation in the Middle East, after a precarious two-week truce was announced, with very uncertain results. These are very diverse issues, which obviously have nothing to do with each other, but which, if followed closely, give a fairly accurate idea of the point at which political forces stand, particularly those of the Popular Party and the Socialists. The start of the trial of the Ábalos-Koldo-Aldama case scheme was, and will continue to be in the coming weeks, a great opportunity for the PP to take advantage of the exhibition of the reprehensible procedures employed by the former Minister of Public Works and former organization secretary of the PSOE, his advisor, and the businessman who did business with them, in relation to public contracts to acquire sanitary material, allegedly violating the law in a tragic context, that of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Easter Week has offered a theoretical break to gather strength for what is to come, the Andalusian regional elections, the most important of this cycle that began in January with those held in Extremadura. This new date at the polls is the one that interests Madrid the most, but also Barcelona, due to its implications. We are talking about a territory with a population of 8,676,713 people, of whom 6,812,861 have the right to vote. It is not just because of the demographic weight of this community that there is a lot at stake in these elections. The full cycle has been and continues to be a testing ground with the prospect of the next general elections, and today it has been settled without a definitive diagnosis. The PP continues to fuel the idea that its arrival at Moncloa is very close, even if it is with Vox as an uncomfortable and essential travel companion. To confirm this, it needs to repeat its current absolute majority in the Andalusian Parliament. Anything less than that will lead to questioning the Popular Party's chances of achieving its main objective. For the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, this match is decisive. The president of the Junta, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, therefore, has a high responsibility in this electoral call, from which his party may emerge with its chest puffed out or with the obligation to ask many questions about the causes of the slowdown in its expectations.

The course of events during the last weeks reinforces the idea that we still have a long way to go in the current legislature. It has been some time since the media spotlight has no longer been on negative judicial decisions for the government each day. Furthermore, Sánchez continues to gain traction with his policy of direct criticism of the actions of the United States and Israel, which has led to the burning of the Middle East. The changes in the Council of Ministers have also once again provided the socialists with a respite, with attention focused on Carlos Cuerpo, the new first vice-president, who has become a symbol for his calm and dialoguing nature. It's like saying that another type of political practice, different from what we are used to, is possible.

The abilities that Pedro Sánchez's government has to take economic and political measures without the Parliament's consent in emergency cases have now been added, out of necessity, the ability to save in extremis, with similar agility, episodes of internal dissent. The last Council of Ministers has been one of the most memorable of this legislature, due to the curious situation caused by the prior negotiation between the socialist majority of the executive and the minority of Sumar. The formation of Vice-President Yolanda Díaz needed to include its own proposals in the package of aid measures for the sectors most affected by the consequences of the war in Iran. From an ideological perspective, it is logical that Sumar insisted on leaving its mark on the drafting of decisions of this type. But it makes little sense to turn the prologue of a Council of Ministers into an episode that the President of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sánchez, described as "salseig" (gossip), whether as a dance or as a spicy substance in certain dishes. The Solomon-like solution found —approving two decrees instead of one— served to unblock a situation that was more showy than serious.

A war of the dimensions and transcendence of that initiated in the Middle East deserved from the outset a serious and documented debate on the background and possible repercussions of the conflict. The way this issue has taken shape in Spanish politics in general is already very disappointing, but if we move to another administrative level, that of the Community of Madrid, things worsen. It is not surprising, because during this legislature it has been common for the PP of Madrid, and especially its president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, to seek confrontation with the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez.

The attack by the United States and Israel on Iran has given Pedro Sánchez an opportunity to reconnect with a broad segment of the Spanish electorate. But this is not the only reason why he has opted for this path. Speculation about the opportunism of the government's decision and its president soon began. The hypothesis of a triple call to the polls has even been considered, which would coincide the Andalusian regional elections, next June, with an early general election and the Catalan elections. These are premature calculations. Given the state of the legislature – with no possibility of approving budgets or promoting important reforms that require the processing of bills –, it would be logical for Sánchez to take advantage of the first opportunity in which he had some favorable expectation of passing a new electoral test. But he will have to be careful, because in times of a warlike scenario and much uncertainty and instability due to the questioning of international legality, it becomes more difficult to predict electoral movements. Also, the option that the socialist leader has now taken is due to his versatility in making a virtue of necessity, an expression that he himself used in the federal committee of his party to justify the amnesty law for Catalan independentist leaders.

This week has been a new test for the parliamentary monarchy system that Spain adopted with the approval of the Constitution. The declassification of documents related to the attempted coup d'état of February 23 has generated several debates, especially regarding the possible return of the emeritus king and the conditions under which it could take place. In the face of the controversy, the royal household has been quick to react. From the Zarzuela Palace, it has been made very clear that Juan Carlos I can return to reside in Spanish territory whenever he decides. But the message contained a warning. If he does, he must be aware that this step implies that "he would have to reestablish his tax residence in Spain". This may be the decisive factor preventing his return. The investigations by the Prosecutor's Office into the emeritus king, which came to nothing, should not imply that once he is settled here again, a kind of guarantee of confidentiality and disinterest regarding his finances and assets will operate. Under these conditions, it is unlikely that Juan Carlos I will abandon the possibility he now has of coming and going as he pleases and settling here again peacefully, which in his case means being able to dispense with the public treasury's attentions that citizens usually receive.

These days we have entered a new phase of the current electoral cycle. This is one of the windows that open between the various elections, a period that institutions and parties take advantage of to hold commemorative and/or propaganda events. Between the results of the regional elections, we are seeing celebrations and initiatives of all kinds. We had the event celebrating that the 1978 Constitution has become the longest-lasting in Spain – 47 years – surpassing that of 1876. And in parallel, we are seeing, in all its forms, the political parties' warm-up maneuvers, both in the short term regarding preparations for the general elections. These are supposed to be in 2027, as the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, has reiterated, taking the opportunity to return the favor to his predecessor, Felipe González. He had said he wouldn't vote for the PSOE while the current Socialist leader was at the top of the list, and the person in question responded that he was very pleased to hear it, adding that the former president would have to be patient, because it would be some time before he supported his party's candidates again, given that he plans to run again next year.

Part One of the electoral cycle that began in Extremadura and continued in Aragon It has had no positive aspects. To begin with, it hasn't been positive for the citizens, insofar as it hasn't facilitated the formation of governing teams ready to begin a new phase of management with enthusiasm and concrete projects. People voted as they saw fit, naturally, and the purpose of these observations is not to fall into the trap of criticizing the community for the verdict of the ballot box.

The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the Spanish government will face a particularly difficult time in the coming weeks. Their poor showing in the Aragonese regional elections will reignite speculation about the possibility of a general election this year. The ultimate test, however, will be in Andalusia next June. Until then, calculations and rumors will continue, but it is unlikely that Pedro Sánchez will dissolve the Valencian Parliament (Corts) before completing the current cycle, which includes Castile and León in March and the Andalusian elections three months later. In any case, he could combine the latter with the general election, but that would seem like a desperate measure. In fact, many Socialists believe that everything still points to a desire to see out the legislature, however much the PSOE may be struggling to adapt to the circumstances and try to recover, despite the poor electoral results, both those already achieved and those they fear from now on.

I would like to believe that Transport Minister Óscar Puente's approach to political participation will be different after his recent experiences. The most solemn and dignified ceremony for the Adamuz and Gelida train accidents took place last Thursday at the Carolina Marín Sports Palace in Huelva. The most significant moment at this state funeral was the speech by Liliana Sáenz, daughter of one of the victims. "We are the families [now 46] who will fight to know the truth," she said, emphasizing the meaning and purpose of her words. "Only the truth," she added, "will help us heal this wound that will never close. We will know the truth, we will fight to ensure there is never another train accident, but we will do so with serenity, with relief."

The Adamuz train accident will necessitate a considerable review of the track conditions to ensure, as far as possible, the safety of the high-speed rail network. This network comprises 3,000 kilometers, used by more than 40 million passengers last year. The same must be done with the commuter rail network, bearing in mind in both cases the need to restore services to full normality as soon as possible and with the necessary guarantees. It is a matter of responsibility. On the one hand, the smooth operation of transportation—including high-speed rail—is a necessity, not a luxury, and on the other, risks must be minimized. Besides establishing the causes of accidents—which in the case of Gelida are especially clearer than in the one from AdamuzWhat must be guaranteed is that proper maintenance of the network is carried out.

The Spanish government's skill in this first part of the year lies in forcing both its partners and the opposition to resolve dilemmas. This applies equally to domestic policy and the international situation. We must go back to last December, to Pedro Sánchez's final press conference and the subsequent Christmas reception at Moncloa Palace, and consider it the moment when many clues were given about the scenario the government would try to create to attempt to get back on track.

These past few days I've been thinking a lot about some conversations I had a while back with Joan Tardà, Gabriel Rufián's predecessor as ERC spokesperson in Congress. Tardà is a sentimental man, but also a very reasonable one, who, whenever he encountered difficulties in open negotiations with the government, would seek explanations. And if we happened to run into each other in the corridors, he'd express his displeasure to me, saying, "Brunet, you know Spain, why are they doing this to us?" It was a rhetorical question; he was aware of the underlying problems, of the constant misgivings whenever an improvement to Catalonia's self-government was negotiated, especially if it involved matters related to money, to funding.

The year that is now beginning will not be just another year of this legislative term. We are entering a decisive stage for the PSOE and for the stability of the system. During 2025, the Socialists have suffered significant erosion of support. Aware of this, the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, must decide whether to run in the next general election, whatever date it may be held. This will undoubtedly be a strictly personal decision, with a major impact on the political landscape. In any case, Sánchez will not be brought down by an internal party movement, which he currently controls without particular difficulty. However, there will be increasing calls for him to reflect on what should be done to guarantee the future of the organization. Some will express their concerns publicly, but what will grow significantly is the number of leaders who will raise the issue privately, in whispers, so that word spreads through the party structures and what is now a hypothesis begins to take shape.

This past Christmas has been marked by official speeches full of good intentions and calls for dialogue, but also by parallel declarations that have had little or no resonance with these kinds of aims. We are ending the year still grappling with the results of the regional elections in Extremadura, and we face another in which Aragon, Castile and León, and Andalusia will complete the picture. The big question is whether this cycle will translate into the beginning of a new political era and whether the PP and Vox will truly be its main protagonists, or whether what was once described as a progressive alliance will be able to withstand the pressure.

The thermometer is already ticking. This Sunday we'll have the first data on the current electoral climate. Extremadura votes, and it will give us a snapshot of the mood of society in that autonomous community. Each region has its own characteristics, but this initial approach to the new election cycle is particularly interesting, both because of how the campaign has unfolded and because it will allow us to draw conclusions about the state of the political forces. The decline of the PSOE is a given, and it remains to be seen whether it will truly approach catastrophic figures. However, the Socialists have resolved to prevent the defeat from turning into depression. If the PP doesn't achieve an absolute majority, the main focus will most likely be on the negotiations between the Popular Party and Vox to form the new regional government. The agreed-upon terms and the price paid by the PP to achieve this will have to be examined in detail. Along with the reactions to the Socialist decline, the attempt at recomposition of the center-right will, in fact, be the most closely watched. The PSOE's electoral ordeal in the coming months is more than predictable. But the Socialists have opted to heed the adage that the urgent thing now is to wait, attributed to Pío Cabanillas, a former minister under Franco, dismissed by Franco himself, later a driving force behind Adolfo Suárez's UCD party and, finally, the PP. The Prime Minister doesn't want to make changes to his team, except, for now, for Pilar Alegría's departure as the candidate for the presidency of Aragon. The Socialists want the new electoral cycle to progress and settle scores once they see what the alliance between the Popular Party and Vox is capable of, wherever they form a coalition, given what it might represent for the next general elections. For now, nothing will break down, although the government will continue to face many difficulties in relaunching the activity of a Parliament now without stable agreements.

Given how events have unfolded, several hypotheses are once again being discussed regarding the end of this legislative term. The Spanish government has been confronted with two additional fronts that it has thus far been unable to control. On the one hand, there is corruption, with a constant stream of news reports about actions by police forces or judges trying to get to the bottom of several ongoing investigations, especially regarding the business dealings of the Cerdán-Ábalos-Koldo network. On the other hand, there are the accusations from women of harassment by PSOE leaders. The problem for the Socialists, in both cases, is that they have failed to react in time. They tell us that once specific cases were detected, they acted diligently. But the truth is that they acted belatedly, and decisively only when the matter had already become public knowledge through media reports.

Amid Christmas lights and soaring consumption – each person to the level they can afford, of course – Spain is preparing to begin a month-long period of collective anesthesia, with one major exception: Extremadura, where [something] has already begun a very interesting electoral marathon. We don't know when the next general election will be, but we have many reasons to believe that, once it's held, nothing will be the same.