These days, when I feel like provoking people by saying that the next general elections – whether this year or next – are not definitively decided, I encounter reactions of disbelief and even severe criticism around me. If in the group exchanging opinions there is someone from the right or liberal, the interruption is immediate, and they say things to me like “Have you lost your mind?”, “You’re completely lost”, or “It’s unbelievable you could think that.” On the other hand, if in the same group there is someone from the left – it doesn’t matter if radical, moderate, or in-between – what they first express is a lack of faith, but immediately accompanied by expressions of the type “Are you sure?”, “And what are you basing that belief on?”, or if the interlocutor is fond of irony, “Félix Tezanos must have told you that,” the director of the Sociological Research Centre (CIS), always accused of sweeping in favor of his own, the socialists. This difference between the respective reactions reveals that the right is very hopeful about regaining power, and sees it as practically done. It also reflects that the left lives with an accentuated feeling of anticipated defeat, but deep down wishing for an unexpected turn, an unlikely stroke of luck, or simply a miracle that will allow them to remain in power.

The future of Spanish political life is currently being played out in two different scenarios, each with its own rhythms and liturgies, making it difficult to make accurate predictions. The first arena is the judicial and the second, the strictly political. I place justice first because, for now, if Pedro Sánchez's government falls, it will not be due to management problems, serious errors in key economic decisions, or foreign relations. The siege on the executive is not being achieved by the opposition, but by the specialized units for economic crimes of the National Police and the Civil Guard, along with the judges and courts involved in the criminal prosecution of the PSOE. I am not talking about lawfare, but about a de facto situation, in which political events are marked by the content of the police reports and court proceedings.

This was supposed to be a "week horribilis" for the PSOE – another one – but the fact is that it has held up well. For now, the socialists demonstrate that they have an ironclad bad health. When they want to feel good, they start talking about the economy and the good progress of the indicators. It is their favorite mirror, before which they see themselves favored. It's like a psychological spring for emergency situations, for example in debates in Congress. There is a lot of parliamentary agitation around them – especially in the Senate, which is the PP's paradise, where it has a comfortable majority – but the socialists neither fall nor kneel.

It was evident that this could not last. The Pope's trip to Spain has been a great success, due to the clarity of the messages —both spiritual and political—, the good organization, and the attention with which it has been followed everywhere. But this climate of intense call for harmony and work for the common good, from unity, will be linked internally with the memory of a period when the country lived trapped in a reality of continuous upheaval. Leo XIV, it is undeniable, has set the bar very high, as high as the cross that crowns the central tower of the Sagrada Familia. The key word of this trip has been dignity, the conception of the person as the holder of inalienable and non-renounceable rights, deserving of the utmost respect. I would like to believe that, for this reason, the applause in Congress lasted almost seven minutes, so that in the hemicycle there is a minimum common denominator regarding the relationship that the chamber should have with citizens.

After two weeks of upheaval, the Pope's visit offers the possibility of a parenthesis of peace and a certain truce. Leo XIV arrives with a very full agenda with which the Spanish government hopes to have the opportunity to temporarily change the scenario. It is a historic visit and attention must be focused on the pontiff's words, especially regarding his intervention in Congress, this coming Monday.

At the moment, Spanish political life greatly resembles the frozen images that sometimes get stuck, fixed, on the screen of a television or some other device. We are waiting for the next step, something has to happen, but no one is taking the initiative. The indictment of former government president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has sparked all sorts of hypotheses and worried comments, but it has not led to substantial changes in the relations between political forces.

Along with the news about the case opened at the National High Court, these days it has been impossible for me not to remember the close relationship I had with José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero a quarter of a century ago, when he decided to run as a candidate for the general secretary of the PSOE. It was June 2000, and that 40-year-old, almost unknown deputy did not have all the guarantees that he would win. Indirectly, he received the help of Alfonso Guerra, who promoted the presentation of the former minister Matilde Fernández to divide the vote and make it difficult for José Bono, former president of Castilla-La Mancha, to win. The fourth candidate was Rosa Díez, who would later found another party, now defunct: Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD).

The day has arrived. This Sunday Andalusia votes in elections that are regional and that many will perceive as a genuine primary. But in a certain sense, it is also a final, an event in which morale and the possibilities with which the PP will have to face the rest of the legislature for the whole of Spain are at stake. If the current Andalusian president, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, manages to regain his absolute majority, the bells will ring loud at Calle Génova in Madrid, where the popular party has its central headquarters. And if he does not obtain this result, they will also ring them, but they will emit a different, more subdued sound, because it will be necessary to go looking for Santiago Abascal, the leader of Vox, to try to guarantee a new parliamentary majority. And from previous experiences, it is already known that an operation of this kind is always a headache.

Perhaps you think someone made a mistake by mixing in the title of this article the Pope's upcoming visit to Spain with the episode of the ship on which cases of hantavirus have been detected, which have caused the death of three people so far. But the decision to relate these two events is entirely voluntary, even though they are matters of very different significance. We are awaiting Leo XIV's messages with great interest, I would say more than ever in recent years of papal travels, surely due to the singularity of the moment we are living in the West and, more broadly, everywhere due to the stage of changes and uncertainties that humanity is going through. The pontiff has placed himself – or we have placed him – at the center of world attention, as a voice that the vast majority wants to hear to feel reaffirmed in their desires for progress, peace, and social well-being. It is clear that there have always been conflicts and dangers – even open wars, like the one in Ukraine – but the awareness of how much we are taking steps backward is more intense and recent. It is linked to the erratic way the North American administration has been conducting itself under the direction of its president, Donald Trump, and to the consequences of his way of acting.

This time we have had a more representative May Day compared to some of the preceding years. In the events called for by the unions, the emotional chord was struck deeply, in mobilizations that respond to a specific political and social situation and that carry a clear message. The main celebration was held in Malaga for various reasons, starting with the fact that Andalusia votes on May 17. The call has allowed for an image of a certain unity of the left, which we already know does not exist in political terms. However, it has become clear that there are indeed essential points of coincidence, susceptible of becoming driving ideas for future initiatives, especially as the general elections approach. The fact that María Jesús Montero and Yolanda Díaz coincided at the Malaga demonstration does not reduce their differences, but it does reflect a common denominator on key issues.

More than forty years have passed since the referendum on Spain's membership in NATO. The vote took place on March 12, 1986, when the former mayor of Barcelona, Narcís Serra (PSC), was Minister of Defense. In these last four decades, Spanish society has changed a lot regarding its knowledge of foreign policy and defense matters, and the majority perceptions about the commitments that membership in the Western world implies. It would now make no sense to reconsider the country's role in its contribution in this area.

The PP and Vox have taken four months to reach an agreement in Extremadura that seems like a pact of circumstances, signed because time was running out, but which contains enough conflictive points to think they will have many problems putting it into practice. Immigration and healthcare will be the most controversial aspects, because the mentality with which these two chapters are treated is clearly restrictive of rights. The campaigns that have been launched previously to prepare the ground will not satisfy the expectations of the signatory parties. Spanish society, by a large majority, does not share the idea that immigrants are a group of criminals responsible for the saturation of public healthcare, while receiving unjustified subsidies.

Political life in Madrid is currently unfolding between two scenarios. Firstly, the courts, due to the start of the trials for corruption cases involving the PP and the PSOE. And secondly, in the realm of international relations, concerning everything related to the situation in the Middle East, after a precarious two-week truce was announced, with very uncertain results. These are very diverse issues, which obviously have nothing to do with each other, but which, if followed closely, give a fairly accurate idea of the point at which political forces stand, particularly those of the Popular Party and the Socialists. The start of the trial of the Ábalos-Koldo-Aldama case scheme was, and will continue to be in the coming weeks, a great opportunity for the PP to take advantage of the exhibition of the reprehensible procedures employed by the former Minister of Public Works and former organization secretary of the PSOE, his advisor, and the businessman who did business with them, in relation to public contracts to acquire sanitary material, allegedly violating the law in a tragic context, that of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Easter Week has offered a theoretical break to gather strength for what is to come, the Andalusian regional elections, the most important of this cycle that began in January with those held in Extremadura. This new date at the polls is the one that interests Madrid the most, but also Barcelona, due to its implications. We are talking about a territory with a population of 8,676,713 people, of whom 6,812,861 have the right to vote. It is not just because of the demographic weight of this community that there is a lot at stake in these elections. The full cycle has been and continues to be a testing ground with the prospect of the next general elections, and today it has been settled without a definitive diagnosis. The PP continues to fuel the idea that its arrival at Moncloa is very close, even if it is with Vox as an uncomfortable and essential travel companion. To confirm this, it needs to repeat its current absolute majority in the Andalusian Parliament. Anything less than that will lead to questioning the Popular Party's chances of achieving its main objective. For the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, this match is decisive. The president of the Junta, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, therefore, has a high responsibility in this electoral call, from which his party may emerge with its chest puffed out or with the obligation to ask many questions about the causes of the slowdown in its expectations.

The course of events during the last weeks reinforces the idea that we still have a long way to go in the current legislature. It has been some time since the media spotlight has no longer been on negative judicial decisions for the government each day. Furthermore, Sánchez continues to gain traction with his policy of direct criticism of the actions of the United States and Israel, which has led to the burning of the Middle East. The changes in the Council of Ministers have also once again provided the socialists with a respite, with attention focused on Carlos Cuerpo, the new first vice-president, who has become a symbol for his calm and dialoguing nature. It's like saying that another type of political practice, different from what we are used to, is possible.

The abilities that Pedro Sánchez's government has to take economic and political measures without the Parliament's consent in emergency cases have now been added, out of necessity, the ability to save in extremis, with similar agility, episodes of internal dissent. The last Council of Ministers has been one of the most memorable of this legislature, due to the curious situation caused by the prior negotiation between the socialist majority of the executive and the minority of Sumar. The formation of Vice-President Yolanda Díaz needed to include its own proposals in the package of aid measures for the sectors most affected by the consequences of the war in Iran. From an ideological perspective, it is logical that Sumar insisted on leaving its mark on the drafting of decisions of this type. But it makes little sense to turn the prologue of a Council of Ministers into an episode that the President of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sánchez, described as "salseig" (gossip), whether as a dance or as a spicy substance in certain dishes. The Solomon-like solution found —approving two decrees instead of one— served to unblock a situation that was more showy than serious.

A war of the dimensions and transcendence of that initiated in the Middle East deserved from the outset a serious and documented debate on the background and possible repercussions of the conflict. The way this issue has taken shape in Spanish politics in general is already very disappointing, but if we move to another administrative level, that of the Community of Madrid, things worsen. It is not surprising, because during this legislature it has been common for the PP of Madrid, and especially its president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, to seek confrontation with the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez.

The attack by the United States and Israel on Iran has given Pedro Sánchez an opportunity to reconnect with a broad segment of the Spanish electorate. But this is not the only reason why he has opted for this path. Speculation about the opportunism of the government's decision and its president soon began. The hypothesis of a triple call to the polls has even been considered, which would coincide the Andalusian regional elections, next June, with an early general election and the Catalan elections. These are premature calculations. Given the state of the legislature – with no possibility of approving budgets or promoting important reforms that require the processing of bills –, it would be logical for Sánchez to take advantage of the first opportunity in which he had some favorable expectation of passing a new electoral test. But he will have to be careful, because in times of a warlike scenario and much uncertainty and instability due to the questioning of international legality, it becomes more difficult to predict electoral movements. Also, the option that the socialist leader has now taken is due to his versatility in making a virtue of necessity, an expression that he himself used in the federal committee of his party to justify the amnesty law for Catalan independentist leaders.

This week has been a new test for the parliamentary monarchy system that Spain adopted with the approval of the Constitution. The declassification of documents related to the attempted coup d'état of February 23 has generated several debates, especially regarding the possible return of the emeritus king and the conditions under which it could take place. In the face of the controversy, the royal household has been quick to react. From the Zarzuela Palace, it has been made very clear that Juan Carlos I can return to reside in Spanish territory whenever he decides. But the message contained a warning. If he does, he must be aware that this step implies that "he would have to reestablish his tax residence in Spain". This may be the decisive factor preventing his return. The investigations by the Prosecutor's Office into the emeritus king, which came to nothing, should not imply that once he is settled here again, a kind of guarantee of confidentiality and disinterest regarding his finances and assets will operate. Under these conditions, it is unlikely that Juan Carlos I will abandon the possibility he now has of coming and going as he pleases and settling here again peacefully, which in his case means being able to dispense with the public treasury's attentions that citizens usually receive.

These days we have entered a new phase of the current electoral cycle. This is one of the windows that open between the various elections, a period that institutions and parties take advantage of to hold commemorative and/or propaganda events. Between the results of the regional elections, we are seeing celebrations and initiatives of all kinds. We had the event celebrating that the 1978 Constitution has become the longest-lasting in Spain – 47 years – surpassing that of 1876. And in parallel, we are seeing, in all its forms, the political parties' warm-up maneuvers, both in the short term regarding preparations for the general elections. These are supposed to be in 2027, as the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, has reiterated, taking the opportunity to return the favor to his predecessor, Felipe González. He had said he wouldn't vote for the PSOE while the current Socialist leader was at the top of the list, and the person in question responded that he was very pleased to hear it, adding that the former president would have to be patient, because it would be some time before he supported his party's candidates again, given that he plans to run again next year.