The Catalan education system is worse than it seems. Or not. Rivers of ink have been written about it. For those not versed in the subject, like myself, figures can help us organize our thoughts. A recent OECD study requires us to qualify the diagnosis and, above all, to review the necessary responses. In fact, the study proposes recommendations that connect with challenges shared by many other sectors that, like education, are immersed in accelerated and profound transformations.One of the elements that draws attention to the Catalan education system is the decline in PISA results. Catalonia started from a relatively advantageous position, but it has accumulated a persistent and pronounced setback, and now it is below other benchmarks. These headlines help to foster a sense of decline. However, there are aspects that have received less attention and that qualify - if not change - the diagnosis. The first: the decline in results is generalized. This forces us to look for part of the explanation in phenomena shared with other countries, probably beyond the direct reach of our education system. Something has changed that hinders learning.One piece of data gives us clues: the proportion of students with special support needs has gone from less than 10% in 2017 to almost 40% this year. You read that right: four out of ten students require differentiated attention. This is an average for the whole of Catalonia; in some centers it is lower and in others, higher. Among the factors that are growing the most is autism, with an increase of 155%. However, part of these increases are due to a better capacity to detect the support that each student needs, and the educational system intends to offer more personalized attention, quite the opposite of the narrative of a decadent system. Data like this should trigger debates and research that go beyond the educational sphere.Socioeconomic factors

Second, the decline in PISA results is more intense in Catalonia than in the OECD countries as a whole or in other reference regions. However, if the change in the socioeconomic composition of the student body is taken into account, the differential is substantially reduced. In other words: the decline is greater because the proportion of students with unfavorable socioeconomic conditions has increased. The OECD, and other academic studies, link this in part to the increase in child poverty and migratory flows. Once again, it is advisable to avoid simplifications: it is not that these students have less academic potential, but rather that they find themselves with more difficult economic and family conditions, late incorporations into the system, and linguistic barriers. The sum of these factors makes teaching difficult and affects school performance. The results of students from affluent socioeconomic backgrounds are similar to those of other reference regions.The focus, therefore, must be on how to adapt the educational system to an environment that has changed rapidly and become more complex. Thus, the specter of decline is dispelled, the need to flee simplistic headlines is recalled, and at the same time, action is called for. The stress under which the educational system lives requires more resources and, according to the OECD report, the effectiveness with which they are used also needs to be improved. Support for each center must be adjusted according to its changing needs and, at the same time, stable teaching teams must be guaranteed who know and can support the students.This same environment also demands a boost to the professional training system and the creation of mechanisms to detect and disseminate best practices. These are challenges that are not exclusive to education. No sector escapes the accelerated social and technological transformation we are experiencing. No company can avoid rethinking its processes, identifying good practices, or keeping employees trained in a context of change and limited resources. We are all familiar with the confusion and anxiety that this situation generates, and which often fuels resistance to change and distrust.However, the education system is not just another sector. It is the cornerstone upon which society is built. If we want it to remain prosperous, just, and free, it must take a step forward: assume leadership and set the path. We need the education system to teach us a lesson again.

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Financial markets seem unfazed. Despite the war between the United States and Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the epicenter of the conflict, and repeated warnings from major international organizations about the risks of a prolonged escalation, the reaction has, for the moment, been one of containment. Or, at least, of a certain indifference. The world's main stock exchanges are trading near all-time highs, and in some cases continue to break records, as if the geopolitical background noise is being muffled by a confidence that, even today, is holding up better than many anticipated. It's not just a matter of markets: household behavior also doesn't seem particularly altered.The stock market is not always a good predictor of the economic future. Sometimes it is right, but it often underestimates risks, especially when they are complex or difficult to quantify. Is this the case? The economic dynamics of the main economies – also the Catalan one – remain relatively solid, at least for now. First-quarter corporate results have been, in general terms, positive and have reinforced the perception that global growth maintains a certain favorable inertia, despite the accumulation of shocks and uncertainties.To this optimism is added another key element: the growing expectation about the impact that artificial intelligence can have on productivity. Not in a distant future, but already today. The latest advances, both in capabilities and applications, fuel the perception of a far-reaching economic transformation, which is not limited to specialized technological sectors, but is beginning to extend to the economy as a whole. If you tried an AI application a few years ago –or even a few months ago– and it disappointed you, try it again. And if you haven't done so yet, the time has come. The qualitative leap is evident, and its transformative potential, difficult to ignore. You will be amazed!Macroeconomic data confirm that the economy is resisting better than could have been feared. In the Spanish case, GDP grew by 2.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, slightly above what had been forecast before the outbreak of the conflict. This growth is healthy and rests mainly on domestic demand, with a prominent role for household consumption and investment that consolidates the momentum of recent quarters. High-frequency indicators suggest that this inertia is being maintained, even though the conflict has already lasted two months: household spending continues to advance strongly, especially in items sensitive to confidence such as leisure, restaurants, or, more recently, fashion, furniture, and decoration.To all this is added a factor often forgotten, but key to understanding the reaction, so far contained, of the price of energy: before the outbreak of the conflict, global oil reserves were at historically high levels. It is true that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has generated a significant deficit in the global production of oil and gas – insufficient, at the moment, to meet demand – and that reserves are being reduced rapidly. But the starting point was relatively favorable.Finally, there is an implicit calculation –risky, but fundamental– that helps explain the markets' serenity. From the outset, they have assumed that the conflict would be short-lived. Perhaps because a prolonged scenario would end up having a serious impact on the global economy, also on the North American one, in a context marked, moreover, by the fall in popularity of the President of the United States a few months before the midterm elections. The fact is that oil and gas futures markets continue to anticipate a contained and time-limited price increase.It is, however, a risky calculation. The situation could turn sour, the conflict intensify and drag on. In this case, the scenario would change substantially: supply problems in some Asian or less resourced countries, a much less accommodating attitude from the markets, sustained tensions in energy prices and, finally, a clear impact on household budgets. We are not yet at this point. Time is running out, but, for the moment, the economy is holding up and looking the other way.

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The polarization of society is no longer a theoretical construct that sociologists warn about. It is a palpable and seemingly undeniable reality. We have to grapple with it every day to swallow the information bombardment we are subjected to and avoid dying of indigestion. The dialectical battle between different political families—not ideological ones—makes sensible dialogue seem impossible, almost a relic of the past. Collaboration? Unthinkable. And solidarity between strangers? Science fiction.

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Have you seen any elephants flying yet? In the information society, big data And of micro-stories, they say they reproduce like mushrooms in autumn. You can see that they happen when we blink. This isn't fake news, it's worse. It's the effect produced by the narrative crisis. It's the loss of the shared narrative, the one that is woven slowly, with the arguments of some and the counterarguments of others, and that defines the consensus on which democracy and its institutions are built. Without that point of union, the reality in which everyone lives becomes more distant. If it becomes too distant, we all end up thinking that others see strange things. What seems impossible to some is real to others. The philosopher Byung-Chul Han argues this in Infocracy (Ed. Taurus). And I buy it. In the field of economics, which is what I'm concerned with, the extreme gap between points of view puts the functioning of the main economic institutions at risk. From my point of view.

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The succession of momentous events that were supposed to usher in a change of era is exhausting and frustrating. The financial crisis was supposed to act as a catalyst for shifting the economic paradigm. COVID-19 made us see the value of life in society and should have moved us away from individualism and materialism. The constant warnings about climate change were supposed to guide us toward a sustainable relationship with the Earth. And technological change was supposed to change everything. However, it seems that changes are rather scarce, except in one area. At the intersection of economics and geopolitics, there has indeed been a shift in the script that places us in a new era. The trade tensions of recent months are its most visible face.

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We were warned. The new president of the United States wasn't here to sit idly by. Only the chosen few can make America great again in four years. He must be thinking, furrowing his brows, to get to work. But the impatience with which he's implementing his illiberal agenda has stunned half the world. It seems like nothing can stop him. But is that really the case? The uncertainty he's generated in 50 days and the risk of economic contraction already looming over the White House could ultimately slow him down.

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