The image of Chinese robots dancing like professionals has gone viral. It makes us wonder if machines will replace us in many tasks that humans currently perform. Artificial intelligence (AI) should boost productivity growth by automating the production of goods and services and, more surprisingly, the production of ideas and discoveries. The paradigmatic example is AlphaFold2, the AI ​​model that "solved" the problem of determining the 3D structure of more than 200 million proteins from their amino acid sequence. This has transformed structural biology, reducing analysis time from months or years to minutes, and led to the awarding of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry to Demis Hassabis and John Jumper of DeepMind. In addition to facilitating imitation and learning, AI can improve itself in a feedback loop. It has evolved from "predicting the next word" to ever-increasing sophistication.

The commuter rail service shutdowns and the ongoing problems on the AP-7 motorway since tolls were lifted reveal transport infrastructure that is not only inadequate but also potentially dangerous. The impact on the 400,000 commuter rail users, the AP-7 closures, the repeated accidents, and the recurring protests have a significant impact on GDP. As a result, productivity in Catalonia is hampered by deficient transport infrastructure stemming from a lack of planning and investment. How and why have we reached this point?

The shock of the tariffs imposed by the US in April generated pessimistic forecasts for 2025 that have not materialized. According to the IMF, the global economy grew by more than 3% in 2025, and the projection for 2026 is similar. The impact of the tariffs has been mitigated by US reversals, prompted by the response of financial markets and by weakness in the face of Chinese control of rare earth elements, crucial for the digital world and for defense. However, the average tariff in the US is close to 15%, not far from the peak of 20% in the 1930s under the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. This does not mean that this increase will not have inflationary consequences for the US and trade diversion between countries. China sells less in the US, but compensates with growing sales in other parts of the world, including Europe. One need only recall the influx of cheap, high-quality electric vehicles into the European market. It's also important to consider that the impact of the tariff—who ultimately pays—depends on whether the exporting company lowers prices to maintain market share, which it will likely try to do in the short term. We see, for example, how Chinese vehicles are sold at reduced prices, which offsets the European Union's tariffs designed to protect the sector. The primary risk for next year is that the US-China trade war will intensify and the effect of the tariffs will be felt later, when exporting companies are unable to maintain low prices. In any case, in the medium term, the tariff increase will lead to less growth.

The major digital platforms (the big techThey dominate the economy. Digital technology has become indispensable, whether for information retrieval, social networking, e-commerce, operating systems, or smartphones. Each of these fields is dominated by a few companies. The leaders are Google with its search engine; Meta in social networking with WhatsApp, Facebook, and Instagram; Amazon in e-commerce; Microsoft with Windows and applications; and Apple in mobile phones. High fixed costs, network effects, and dynamic economies of scale (e.g., in the learning curve) make these companies increasingly competitive. big tech are dominant. The accumulation of data leads to feedback effects, in which more production and more sales induce more data and more network effects that make the company more efficient, improve products and services, and stay ahead of competitors. They are, therefore, markets that migrate towards a winner that takes the whole market or most of it (winner-takes-alleitherwinner-takes-most).

The outcome of BBVA's takeover bid for Banc de Sabadell was unexpected, both for analysts and for the presidents of both banks, Carlos Torres and Josep Oliu. It's reminiscent of the failure of José Ángel Sánchez Asiaín, president of Banco de Bilbao, when his hostile takeover bid for Banesto failed in 1987. BBVA only achieved a 25% or so approval rate. It was expected that the takeover bid among Sabadell shareholders would be between 30% and 50%, so BBVA had to consider whether to go ahead, and there was speculation about whether the price would be raised (which had to be "fair" and approved by the CNMV).

Industrial policy is back in fashion. The new international environment is protectionist and prioritizes autonomy for reasons of security and resilience. It is the result of the converging trends of the lack of governance of globalization, rapid technological change, climate change, the pandemic, and war. The reinforcement of domestic production of goods considered essential (medicines, defense, food, etc.) is the order of the day for all the major blocs in the world, and the ownership structure of companies matters.

George Orwell wrote the novel 1984 between 1947 and 1948 and published it in 1949. The novel features the character of Big Brother, who monitors everything in a world where information is manipulated. This world is divided into three large areas: Oceania, with all of America, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Iceland, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa; Eurasia, with the Soviet Union and continental Europe; and East Asia, with China, Japan, and Korea, among others. These areas fight to exploit other parts of the world, but maintain a balance. It's a world of spheres of influence similar to the current one after the recent evolution of the United States, as John Authers of Bloomberg has pointed out.

William Vickrey, Nobel Prize winner in economics in 1996, proposed tolling to control traffic congestion in the 1960s. He was a professor at Columbia University in New York and thought about easing access to Manhattan, with the bottlenecks represented by bridges and tunnels8. Between Columbia University and the University of Pennsylvania (where I was a professor), the speaker was taking a long time to arrive and Vickrey stood up and, to entertain the audience, told us a story

The blackout on Monday, April 28, was a gray swan event. It was an unexpected event that made us aware of our enormous dependence on electricity, but it was on the radar as a possibility. The electricity grid operator itself, Red Eléctrica de España (REE), declared the blackout exceptional and completely extraordinary, but in February, in its parent company Redeia's annual report to the National Securities Market Commission, it had already warned investors that the high penetration of renewable energy (in 2024) in the grid would affect the electricity supply. According to REE, this was a probable risk in the short and medium term that would lead to an imbalance between generation and demand. Furthermore, in 2023, REE itself and the National Commission on Markets and Competition had already warned of a risk of a blackout due to overvoltage (with a greater energy flow than the transmission grid can handle). Furthermore, REE had indicated that it did not have sufficient tools to prevent grid tensions. Well, ruling out a cyberattack, this appears to be what happened on April 28th, shortly after 12:30 p.m., when photovoltaic plants were disconnected, causing the frequency to drop below 50 Hz and increasing voltage, destabilizing the grid. The firewalls didn't work, and France disconnected shortly after. The result was a "fuse trip," and 15 gigawatts of generation (approximately 60% of the electricity being consumed) were suddenly lost.

Europe may be one of the most harmed by the decisions made by the current US administration: in trade, through tariffs; in security, through collusion with Russia; and in politics, through support for the European far right. The history of the Old Continent has not exactly been peaceful, but the end of World War II and the Cold War consolidated the peace, which was first shattered at the end of the 20th century by the Balkan Wars and recently by the invasion of Ukraine. The end of the alliance with the US presents a great challenge but also a great opportunity: to take a step forward in European unity in politics, security, economics, and science.

Trump is shaking the world with threats of imposing tariffs on a general scale. According to him, they should serve two purposes: protect the US economy (and industry in particular) and provide revenue to the state (going so far as to say that they could replace the income tax, as in the days of the first Treasury Secretary, Alexander Hamilton). Based on the experience of his first term, they are also supposed to be a negotiating tactic to achieve other ends. For example, controlling illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking from Mexico and Canada (!). The imposition of 25% tariffs in both countries and the one-month pause in implementing them, in exchange for concessions (which seem cosmetic), would indicate this. The tactic is based on the idea that the cost of imposing tariffs is much higher in a small country than in a large one like the US. The economy of Mexico or Canada is much more dependent on the US than the other way around, although the production chains are integrated between the three countries. In any case, tacticism can cause the victims not to take the threat seriously. And if they give in to Trump's demands and he reverses the tariffs, the objectives of protection and income will not be achieved. There is a contradiction in the objectives. On the other hand, no reasonable calculation allows for tariff revenues to replace direct taxes. The tariffs end up being largely paid by American consumers with higher prices.