Is everything subject to commodification? Can a war also turn uncertainty and tragedy into a negotiable asset? According to the figure reflected in the contracts on the Polymarket platform before Iran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, the odds of this happening within a specific timeframe (April 30) were slim. 26%. Within hours, however, following Tehran's statement, the odds rose to 44% before dropping slightly again, to 40%. And they have dropped even further, to 31%, after the Revolutionary Guard said this Saturday that it was closing it again. Bettors from all over the world have invested in one of the two possibilities (yes/no), nearly 15 million dollars.

The weekly magazine Destino published an editorial note on January 17, 1959, which resonates strongly today. It stated: "As we announced to our readers, Josep Pla has boarded a tanker in El Ferrol to produce a series of major reports exclusively for the readers of Destino. The information we have commissioned from our friend is about oil. Europe is dependent on this fuel, and it is necessary for a journalist like Pla to explain to us, with his unparalleled acuity, all the political and economic problems involved in the extraction and exploitation of oil." Almost seventy years have passed, and not only Europe, but the whole world is dependent on it.

Islamabad, Paris, Rome, Ankara, Qatar, London… Behind the scenes, international diplomacy is working against the clock to prevent the collapse of the truce between Iran and the United States. In this context, Donald Trump said this Tuesday in an interview with the New York Post that talks with Tehran could resume in the next 48 hours and that the venue would likely be Pakistan. At this point it is difficult to discern to what extent the tycoon's words are a real prediction or a wish, but they are in line with previous reports indicating that US officials are trying to resume talks with the Iranians before the ceasefire expires next Tuesday.

Donald Trump's deadline to block the Strait of Hormuz expired this Monday past 10 a.m. in Washington and, during the first hour, the only visible change has been on a rhetorical level. The president has once again threatened the Iranians, warning them that any of their ships that try to overcome the siege of the US military will be "eliminated". "If any of these ships approach our blockade, they will be immediately eliminated, and we will use the same elimination system that we use against drug traffickers on boats at sea. It is fast and brutal," warned the Republican, alluding to extrajudicial executions in the Caribbean Sea against alleged narco-boats. Shortly after the Republican announced on Sunday his intention to obstruct maritime passage to economically harm the ayatollahs, Tehran warned that no port in the Persian Gulf would be safe if he tried to stop their ships.

One of the key points of the fragile ceasefire established between the United States and Iran on Wednesday is the free movement of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. A key passage for tankers, fertilizers, and dry goods, the strangulation generated as a result of the war threatens the entire world economy. The volume of ship passage has fallen from between 150 and 200 daily on February 27 to less than ten in the last forty-eight hours.

The war fronts are multiplying everywhere while Donald Trump continues to belittle NATO and opens wars from which he cannot emerge afterwards. In a context of growing global tension, this Thursday the British government revealed that Russia carried out a covert submarine operation in the North Atlantic, in waters near the United Kingdom, for more than a month. A month in which, as in the best moments of the Cold War, Russians and Westerners played the cat-and-mouse game. Because the Russian submarines were being watched at all times: the British frigates were responsible for making it evident.

The UK's Home Office confirmed this Tuesday that it has banned the entry to the country of rapper Kanye West, now known as Ye, who is very controversial for his provocative lyrics, in which he has even praised Adolf Hitler. The decision comes after an intense review of his visa and puts an end to weeks of controversy over his participation as a headliner at London's Wireless Festival, which will take place in July. Official sources report that immigration law powers have been used to ban the artist due to his history of antisemitic, racist, and pro-Nazi comments. In its resolution, the government considers them to be "incompatible with the maintenance of public order and social cohesion in the country".

Without insurance, there are no ships to sail. That is why, at number 1 Lime Street, in the heart of the City of London, Donald Trump's words have a relative impact. He can say one thing or the opposite. Either that the war will end in "the next two or three weeks", after sending Iran "to the Stone Age, where it belongs." Or that the navy's aircraft carriers will protect the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Or even more: that it will be the Western allies who will have to do it, either by warlike or diplomatic means, such as those discussed on Thursday by the thirty-five countries that, with the United Kingdom as host, met virtually to analyze the alternatives to the blockade of oil flow in the Persian Gulf.

Sometimes, throwing a letter into a mailbox can be like throwing it into a black hole. A few days ago, Jason Bevan, an eighty-year-old pensioner living in the small town of Lidney, almost 200 kilometers west of London, lamented in the letters to the editor section of the Daily Telegraph about the unreliability of Royal Mail, the iconic British postal service. His wife, to whom he had been married for fifty-eight years, died in January and the man explained: "I received many condolence cards and was expecting more after an announcement in the local press. However, I didn't receive any mail all week."

Karel Lannoo is the Chief Executive Officer of the think tank Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), based in Brussels. The organization is a relevant voice in community politics and debate. A graduate in philosophy and modern history, he has been observing the internal and external fluctuations that the European Union has faced for over twenty-five years. He is, therefore, in a privileged position to analyze the challenges for the 27 at a time when the global order has been shattered and threats to the EU are of all kinds.

Denmark's Social Democratic Party, led by acting Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, won Tuesday's general election, though it failed to secure an absolute majority for the left-wing (red) bloc after suffering a significant setback. With only 21.9% of the vote and 38 seats, the party achieved its worst results since 1901. In the 2022 election, Frederiksen, in power since 2019, won 50 seats and 27.54% of the vote. Despite the setback, the candidate seeking reelection managed to reverse a trend in the polls, which had seen her support plummet to 16%. Her strongest ally was Donald Trump and his ambition to annex Greenland by forceFrederiksen has displayed a profile of a strong stateswoman, sending troops and medical supplies to the island and positioning herself as the defender of Danish sovereignty against what many have described as "bullying" by the United States. It was in this favorable context that she called the early elections. But voters have created a highly fragmented Folketinget (the Danish Parliament). The gap between the traditional left-wing and right-wing blocs is only seven seats (84 to 77), in a quarter where an absolute majority is 90. "I have been responsible for this wonderful country for almost seven years," Frederiksen said when she appeared before her supporters in the early hours of the morning. "I am still ready to take on the responsibility as Prime Minister of Denmark," she affirmed. The Moderates hold the key to forming a government.

The key to who will form the government, however, lies with Els Moderats, a small centrist party that won 14 seats, two fewer than in the last parliamentary elections. Led by the outgoing Foreign Minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, former Prime Minister (2015-2019), it continues to maintain its position of kingmakerRasmussen retains the ability to tip the balance to the left or right.

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The United Kingdom faces a decisive decade for its energy future at a time when most of its nuclear fleet is nearing the end of its lifespan due to aging. Currently, the country generates approximately 15% of its electricity from nuclear power, thanks to an installed capacity of around 6.5 gigawatts, generated by nine reactors at four plants. But all but one must be decommissioned by 2030. This has forced the British government to accelerate a political and financial commitment to a new generation of power plants, a commitment that is fraught with controversy and challenges. Currently, the UK is building two major projects: Hinkley Point C in Somerset and Sizewell C in Suffolk. Both, the first new plants built since 1988, symbolize both the ambition and the difficulties of the British nuclear model. With estimated costs reaching €54.57 billion for the first and €43.23 billion for the second, these plants have become some of the most expensive energy infrastructure projects in the world, as the Working Group on Nuclear Regulation, established by Keir Starmer the previous February, warned at the end of November of last year. The cost overruns and delays have been so significant that EDF, the French state-owned company in charge of building Sizewell C, has accumulated multimillion-euro losses and has demanded that the British government assume almost all the financial risk for the project to move forward. Hinkley Point C is expected to come online between 2030 and 2031; Sizewell C, in 2035-36. The Working Group also warned that the UK has become the most expensive country in the world to build a nuclear power plant, not so much because of the technology used, but because of an accumulation of environmental, safety, and administrative processes that, according to the report, often do not provide real benefits in terms of public health or environmental protection. The document denounced a regulatory culture that is excessively risk-averse, which has resulted in thousands of pages of environmental impact assessments and increasingly lengthy and unpredictable planning processes.

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Keir Starmer took another step Friday afternoon to bring the UK closer to war with Iran, but above all, to appease the increasingly aggressive Donald Trump, hours after the US president called NATO allies who had refused to get involved in the war "cowards." Without yet making a definitive change of course, Downing Street announced it will allow the US military to use British bases in punitive operations to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and target missile launchers. In addition to the Fairford base in England, Washington also has access to the use of the strategic base on Diego Garcia island in the Indian Ocean

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The deaths of two students from an outbreak of meningitis B (MenB) in Kent, about 90 kilometers southeast of London, have forced British authorities to activate emergency measures to prevent its spread. Nine cases have been confirmed since Saturday and up to Wednesday morning, while eleven more are still being analyzed. In response, the British government launched an urgent and targeted vaccination program on Wednesday for 5,000 students at the University of Kent (in Canterbury), the main epicenter of the outbreak, along with four secondary schools in the area. In addition, health services began distributing preventative antibiotics on Monday to students who may have been exposed to the bacteria. According to the Ministry of Health, more than 2,500 doses have already been distributed. British Health Secretary Wes Streeting appeared before Parliament yesterday and described the situation as "unprecedented" and "rapidly evolving." However, in an interview this morning on the BBC, he assured that the risk to the general population "is very low," although the disease is "extremely serious." According to information Streeting provided to the House of Commons, most of the infections are linked to parties held on March 5, 6, and 7 at the Club Chemistry nightclub in Canterbury. Subsequent interaction among students is believed to have contributed to the spread. The two fatalities are a Year 6 student (between 16 and 18 years old) from Queen Elizabeth's Grammar School in Faversham, 15 kilometers from Canterbury, and a student from the University of Kent. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has already contacted more than 30,000 students, teachers, and family members to inform them of the risks and advise them on the preventative measures they should take. General practitioners across the country have also been instructed to prescribe preventative antibiotics to all students who were at the Canterbury Chemistry Club and have since returned home for the Easter holidays. British health authorities are also investigating a possible case in France linked to a student who had recently been in Canterbury. Meanwhile, the case of a baby in London identified as having meningitis B is not related to the Kent outbreak. Around 350 cases of MenB are recorded annually in the UK. Some university students are not immune.

Meningitis is an infection of the membranes surrounding the brain and spinal cord and can progress very rapidly. In the case of bacterial meningitis, such as MenB, it can lead to sepsis and be fatal if not treated with antibiotics in the hospital. Initial symptoms can be mistaken for the flu or a hangover, with high fever, headache, vomiting, and stiff neck. In severe cases, a skin rash may appear.

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"There are no rats in the Moncloa Palace. There are in Downing Street and the Élysée Palace, I've seen them." More on M-30 politics: Madrid's frequently maligned taxi drivers, at least the two who drove a certain Alastair Campbell to the Spanish capital last week, believe Pedro Sánchez still has plenty of time left in power. The first one said:"He's the best president we've ever had, and it's about time we realized it." And the second: "I don't care about the polls, he'll win again." There you have it. Not everyone listens to COPE or Libertad Digital. Some might have SER on all the time, and they could do more cameos in Almodóvar films than in Torrente.

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Early Saturday morning, the United States bombed Kharg Island, the nerve center of Iran's oil industry, from which it exports 90% of its crude. Donald Trump called the attacks the "most powerful" in the history of the Middle East and claimed they "annihilated" all military targets on the island, located in the northern Persian Gulf, about 25 kilometers off the Iranian coast.

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The human eye can analyze a satellite image in about ten minutes. Project Maven, the Pentagon's AI-powered image analysis program, in which companies like [company names missing] participate, is a different story. Palantir TechnologiesIt can process a thousand images per second. This enormous computing power has transformed The war in Iran was one of the first conflicts where artificial intelligence systems play a central role in identifying and prioritizing targets, and where processing speed dictates the pace of operations. And this is far more pronounced than in previous conflicts. The war waged by Tel Aviv and Washington against Tehran marks the large-scale debut of a technology that until recently was little more than an experiment, although Ukraine and Gaza have already witnessed some initial widespread trials.

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Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, He manages a secret financial empire that stretches across the heart of some European capitals, and also along the coasts of the island of MallorcaKhamenei, through a proxies, owns two luxury properties in Kensington Palace Gardens, London's most exclusive street. These two apartments are located a mere 50 meters from the Israeli embassy in the British capital, one of the most heavily guarded diplomatic missions in the world, and very close to the palace that, until 2022, was the primary residence of Prince William and his wife, Kate Middleton.

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The radars of the 49th Missile Defense Battalion, based in Fort Greely (Alaska)They detect the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) heading toward some point in the United States. They can't identify its launch point, but they know that in just over eighteen minutes, unless it's an error in the tracking satellites, it will impact its predetermined target. The military chain of command is activated, preparing to intercept it. The political structure is also set in motion to decide, ultimately by the president, whether to counterattack—against whom, but?—which could trigger a global nuclear war. This is the beginning of the gripping Netflix hit that premiered last October. In House of DynamiteFrom Kathryn Bigelow's film. In the movie, the chances of intercepting an ICBM in flight, traveling at a speed of six kilometers per second, are 61%. Do they manage to intercept the missile? No need to spoil it.

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The German press group Axel Springer, owner of publications such as Bild, Die Welt or Politico, has completed the purchase, this Friday, of one of the benchmark newspapers of the UK right, The Daily Telegraph. The European communications giant is paying 655 million euros for The Daily Telegraph and The Sunday Telegraph, ousting, in a lightning operation, the bid from Jonathan Harold Esmond Vere Harmsworth, great-grandson of Rothermere, owner of the company Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT), which controls The Daily Mail and The Mail on Sunday.

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