Now may be Germany's time

Three times in history, the chancellors of the Federal Republic of Germany have made strategic decisions that have opened the door to a better future for Europe. Today, not only is there an opportunity for a fourth historic moment, but we urgently need one. If the new coalition government of the country led by Friedrich Merz knows how to seize the opportunity offered by this crisis, both Germany and Europe will emerge from it. If not, by the end of the 2020s, both will have regressed further and faster than almost all of us could have imagined in our worst nightmares even a few weeks ago.

There is, however, one major difference between these three decisive moments and the current one: In 1949, 1969 and 1989, the policy of the Federal Republic was fully aligned with that of the United States. This time, however, Germany must build a stronger, freer and more democratic Europe that supports Ukraine against the current US policy. The moment of election night that left us most stunned was when Merz, a lifelong Atlanticist, declared that Europe "must achieve independence from the US." (Compared to the almost British servility displayed the next day by Emmanuel Macron in the White House, the future German chancellor seems almost more Gaullist than the French president.)

In 1949 Konrad Adenauer, the great chancellor and founder of the Federal Republic, chose to seamlessly integrate the western half of his then divided country into the emerging geopolitical and transatlantic West and a more united Europe, a decision that was in line with the US-based orientation of Great Britain. In 1969, theeastpolitics, Chancellor Willy Brandt's opening to the East was in keeping with the détente policies pursued by Washington, Paris and London. Chancellor Helmut Kohl's 1989 resolution to incorporate German unification into the later stages of European unification, as a common European currency, was welcomed by the US and opened the door to the acceptance of German unity by the French. In all three cases there were strong reservations in some Western capitals – the most short-sighted of which was Margaret Thatcher's opposition to German unification – but over time Germany's major strategic choices have aligned with those of a US-led geopolitical West.

Not any more today. As long as Trump is in the White House, there will be no West as a geopolitical player. On Monday, the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we witnessed the shameful spectacle of the US voting with Russia against a UN resolution promoted by the EU and Britain in support of Kiev. Washington has now joined the transactional big and middle powers of the BRICS in attacking what remains of the liberal international order it itself built. John Ikenberry, an expert on international relations, called the US a liberal leviathan. Today the liberal leviathan has become a lonely and dangerous elephant.

Thus, the free Europe we have built since 1949 is now under attack from within and from without, and both types of threats are intertwined. A nationalist, populist, illiberal Europe is gaining ground everywhere. The candidate for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the chancellery, Alice Weidel, is not wrong in her own eyes when she describes her party's election result as a "historic success": it received a fifth of all votes and is the clear winner of the elections in East Germany and the second party of the new B. The scandal is the support from Washington. The diatribe of the American vice president, JD Vance, at the Munich Security Conference was a speech calling for the vote for the AfD. On Sunday evening, Merz sarcastically observed that Washington's interference in our democratic politics is "no less spectacular than that of Moscow."

Following the unification of Germany in 1990, we celebrated the fact that it had become a European country. normal. Now, depending on how we see it, we should regret it. Because today in a normal European country the liberal centre is facing its last chance. If the liberal centre does not make the necessary changes to win back voters who have gone over to the populist extremes, Marine Le Pen will become French president in 2027, AfD will win the German elections in 2029 and Nigel Farage's Reform Party will overtake the Conservatives in Britain.

The good news is that the main German and European liberal democratic parties are increasingly clear about what they must do. Europe must save Ukraine. We must soon create a much stronger common European defence, including Britain. All of us, but especially Germany, must regain economic dynamism without reversing the green transition, but also addressing the concerns about socio-economic and geographic inequality that have driven voters closer to the populists. We must control illegal immigration, but at the same time achieve the integration of large numbers of immigrants, which is the only way to solve the urgent demographic challenge before us.

How to do it? How can we pay for it? The obstacles within Germany are immense. A country famous for its automobile engines is now better known for its brakes, such as the "debt brake" enshrined in the Constitution. But it is also true that a German chancellor has immense possibilities to steer the country in a new direction if, like Adenauer, Brandt and Kohl, he has the will and the skill to do so.

According to tradition, the upcoming talks to form a coalition of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats should result in a series of agreements that would distribute the slices of a large and growing pie between the two parties. But what if the pie is shrinking and two new large pieces have to be cut: more investment in defence and in the country's now largely neglected infrastructure? It is obvious that Germany must somehow relax this debt brake, but if it really must be time for a strategic change – a genuine one – then it is time for a strategic change. Times of the Week (change of era) – Merz must follow the example of his two great Christian Democrat predecessors, Adenauer and Kohl, and take another major step forward towards a stronger Europe. In terms of security, defence industry, energy, green transition and AI, Europe must grow in order to assert itself in this world of threatening giants. The solutions must not always consist of the classic Brussels-style integration, but can only be at national level.

The biggest German brake of all is a state of mind: a curious mix of being too calm and too fearful at the same time. As a fan of German compound nouns, I was delighted by the brilliant description of the German political scientist Karl-Rudolf Korte, who has defined Germany as a Wolf Wartungsland, a country that is always waiting for the wolf to come. But now we have the wolves here: two big ones at the door, Putin and Trump, and a small one, AfD, which is already in the henhouse.

To defeat these wolves, the Germans need one quality above all: courage. They must follow the advice of their national poet. As Goethe said: "If you lose a few possessions, you have lost something! [...] If you lose honour, you have lost a lot! [...] If you lose courage, you have lost everything!"